Vice President Joe Biden (D) continues to lead all rivals for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. The only other candidate with double digit support is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D), and Biden leads him by 20 points.
Biden also leads in a head-to-head match up with President Donald Trump in the key Electoral College states of Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Biden in North Carolina. The men are tied in Arizona. However, it’s worth remembering that nearly every pollster was wrong about the 2016 presidential outcome.
Biden is securing strong support from black voters which may allow him to sweep the South during the primary season. This is how Hillary Clinton was able to pull ahead of Bernie Sanders in 2016. So far, Bernie’s campaign has not found a way to appeal broadly to this important primary voting block.
Contrary to the wishes of identity politics proponents, black voters are not flocking to the black candidates in the race: California senator Kamala Harris and New Jersey senator Cory Booker. Black Democratic voters were slow to support Barack Obama in 2008 until he began winning primary elections with large majorities of white voters.
Biden stumbled this week when he appeared to dismiss China as a rival to the United States. Much of official Washington tends to underestimate the threat from China and overestimate the threat from Russia, whose economy is much smaller. Americans have not suffered job losses to Russia over the last three decades. This Europe-Asia divide in political emphasis will be a major issue in the 2020 general election.
Trump took a big risk this week when he decided to increase tariffs on a recalcitrant China in their ongoing trade renegotiation. American consumers may begin to feel the cost of Trump’s new tariffs that will also further hurt soybean farmers and other parts of the agricultural sector. China is betting that it can endure economic pain longer than the United States voting public.