Polls – Biden
In the most recent RealClearPolitics poll, former Vice president Joe Biden (D) has an average 8.1 lead over current President Donald Trump (R) over the last month and we have seen very little change. Remember if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief they will not be completed forthright. It still is a very good indicator especially for the direction of a a campaign.
Models – Trump
Yale professor Ray Fair claims “Trump’s re-election chances are looking very good, pointing to the model.” His model predicted both of Obama presidential wins and Trump’s win in 2016. Surprising when viewing 12 different economic models and President Trump wins in all of them.
One example of the 12 is TrendMacrolytics, a research firm that predcited Trump’s 2016 win correctly and they are forecasting a big Trump win in 2020. Remember few polls had Trumps vs Clinton correctly. The forecast is based on economic trends and TrendMacrolytics believes the economy is too healthy and successful for enough people to vote against Trump. Please remember the economy can change in one and half years.
Moody’s Analytics has Trump with the same caveat, that the stock market and economy need to stay healthy.
On Crowd Size – Trump
Joe Biden and his team are using a surprising political strategy, one very similar to Hillary Clinton’s (D) approach to campaigning. Some are calling it “run in the dark.” Since Biden is gaffe prone and to date has real problems drawing crowds, which the other campaigns can and will use against him, his handlers are keeping him away from rallies like this one in Nevada where the photo exposed his deficiencies. Very big successful rallies are one of the best ways to increase your chances of a successful election.
It was estimated that only 150 showed up to his Nevada really. Many pundits believe that it’s better to not have a rally at all, than have what is considered a failed rally. For a presidential front runner, the image from this Nevada rally is precisely what Biden’s team doesn’t want the public to see.
Trump Rallies are massive and it is believed he might attain up to 14 addition votes for every person that visits his rallies. Trump’s rallies are often seen as so successful and they are often highly televised, with both positive and negative video clips shown depending on the ideology of the news source. Please remember how large former President Barack Obama (D) crowds were.
One Thing is for Certain…
Everything will change over the next year and a half. Biden will get challenged. The market and economy could get dicey. Biden could fix his crowd issues. It’s all too early to make a real estimation of the 2020 election outcome but we enjoy trying.