On polls, former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has about a 20 point lead over Sen Elizabeth Warren (D). Remember polls are not very accurate if the people being polled don’t trust the poll takers. With that said Biden has the clear advantage. Studies say that if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief or to what they are personally representing, they will not be completed forthright. Polls are one of the better indicators for the overall direction of a a campaign.
On the pathway, this is what really sets Biden apart. He is middle of the road where he has a cleaner, more centralist, less competitive pathway. Elizabeth Warren must move through Sen. Bernie Sanders (D), who is one of the most dynamic politicians when it comes to public persuasion. Warren is out to break up Big Tech. Even though this could be considered a very desirable policy politically, this is harmful to her in a primary because the power, wealth and influence that these companies have is a significant force against her.
Also her attack on Fox News seemed to have no positive or negative effect, but please keep in mind, Big Tech is much stronger than Fox News. Although she is a very good at selling her policies, her positions come with enough of a negative edge that some of the most powerful Democrats within Wall Street and Silicon Valley could oppose her. The is why we think of her as “Academic Warren.” As you can see in the Pew Research below, the more extreme the position to the right or left, the less the the overall public support for your plan. So, even if Sen Warren wins the Democratic nomination due to her left positioning compared to Joe Biden, she would have a far harder path to beating Trump as her positions often are very progressive. Sen. Warren is stronger on policy than Joe Biden who is quite weak and often stumbles.
Joe Biden is more of the middle of the pack guy, making few, if any enemies, and has the image of a good guy. In today’s world can I good guy run the world or will countries like China run him? He has a very good pathway in the middle (where the largest amount of voters prefer their candidates to be), with little direct competition. Whereas Sen. Warren has to fight harder for a smaller share. Overall we vote that this helps Joe Biden.
Crowed Sizes: Warren
It still looks like Biden’s April kickoff rallies were his biggest; still small for the former Vice President and front runner. On crowd size is where Biden is failing and it measures as the most valuable part of politics. Rallies produce a multiplier effect up to 14. Meaning for every attendee you can receive up to 14 additional votes. Warren is figuring out how to produce strong rallies.
Overall Favorite: Biden
The one thing for certain is that everything will change. Our best estimate is that since Biden wins two out of three of the criteria above, he should stay the favorite. Especially if he can figure out how to develop very successful rallies.