Biden vs Warren: Polls/Pathway? Biden. Crowd Size? Warren.


Polls: Biden

On polls, former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has about a 20 point lead over Sen Elizabeth Warren (D). Remember polls are not very accurate if the people being polled don’t trust the poll takers. With that said Biden has the clear advantage. Studies say that if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief or to what they are personally representing, they will not be completed forthright. Polls are one of the better indicators for the overall direction of a a campaign.

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. Biden also represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is a candidate for President in the 2020 election.

Pathway: Biden

On the pathway, this is what really sets Biden apart. He is middle of the road where he has a cleaner, more centralist, less competitive pathway. Elizabeth Warren must move through Sen. Bernie Sanders (D), who is one of the most dynamic politicians when it comes to public persuasion. Warren is out to break up Big Tech. Even though this could be considered a very desirable policy politically, this is harmful to her in a primary because the power, wealth and influence that these companies have is a significant force against her.

Elizabeth Ann Warren born June 22, 1949) is an American politician and academic serving as the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts since 2013

Also her attack on Fox News seemed to have no positive or negative effect, but please keep in mind, Big Tech is much stronger than Fox News. Although she is a very good at selling her policies, her positions come with enough of a negative edge that some of the most powerful Democrats within Wall Street and Silicon Valley could oppose her. The is why we think of her as “Academic Warren.” As you can see in the Pew Research below, the more extreme the position to the right or left, the less the the overall public support for your plan. So, even if Sen Warren wins the Democratic nomination due to her left positioning compared to Joe Biden, she would have a far harder path to beating Trump as her positions often are very progressive. Sen. Warren is stronger on policy than Joe Biden who is quite weak and often stumbles.

Sen. Warren June Rally was very impressive for the person ranted 3rd in the polls

Joe Biden is more of the middle of the pack guy, making few, if any enemies, and has the image of a good guy. In today’s world can I good guy run the world or will countries like China run him? He has a very good pathway in the middle (where the largest amount of voters prefer their candidates to be), with little direct competition. Whereas Sen. Warren has to fight harder for a smaller share. Overall we vote that this helps Joe Biden.

Source: Pew Research

Crowed Sizes:  Warren

It still looks like Biden’s April kickoff rallies were his biggest; still small for the former Vice President and front runner. On crowd size is where Biden is failing and it measures as the most valuable part of politics. Rallies produce a multiplier effect up to 14. Meaning for every attendee you can receive up to 14 additional votes. Warren is figuring out how to produce strong rallies.

Joe Biden rally was just after his announcement, small for the front runner and Former Vice President

Overall Favorite: Biden

The one thing for certain is that everything will change. Our best estimate is that since Biden wins two out of three of the criteria above, he should stay the favorite. Especially if he can figure out how to develop very successful rallies.

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Jay Black

I try to write fact based articles that most people won't. Lets improve this world including both Corporate and Government malfeasance. If you have a lead about a ethical failure please comment on my article or in many of my comments.

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