Turkish Offensive Analysis in Syria

  • The Turkish relationship with Syria remains complicated.
  • After the Kurdistan offensive, Turkey will create a buffer zone, which will be used to resettle Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
  • The Kurds say they have struck a deal with Assad in order to get protection from Turkish aggression.

Russian military officials are voicing concerns over the humanitarian crisis in Syria due to Turkish involvement. Turkey started an operation against the Kurds on October 9, 2019 under the guise of “counterterrorism.” The Kurdish population of Syria is that country’s largest ethnic minority, comprising between 7% and 10% of the population.  Kurds are one of the indigenous peoples of the Mesopotamian plains and the highlands in what is now south-eastern Turkey, north-eastern Syria, northern Iraq, north-western Iran and south-western Armenia.

Erdogan is an authoritarian leader of Turkey and after a failed coup attempt against him, ordered mass-scale repressions within the government’s top brass. He then sought constitutional reforms to gain additional power.

Turkey relationship with the European Union is tense, due to use of excessive force against protesters, including the treatment of Kurds. He is also responsible for en mass migrants into Western Europe.

Furthermore, Erdogan has purchased Russian defense equipment. However, no US sanctions followed the announcement of that deal. Russia and Iran remain neutral pertaining to Turkey. The Turkish relationship with Syria remains complicated.

Idlib, is a city in northwestern Syria that operates as the capital of the Idlib Governorate and stands 59 kilometers southwest of Aleppo.

The reasons behind the Turkish Operation in Syria:

  • The loss of a recent referendum.
  • Revenge for the coup and opposition protests.
  • The devaluation of the Turkish currency.
  • A failing relationship with the European Union.
  • A Failing balance between imports and exports.
  • A strained relationship with the US.

Erdogan’s Strategic plans in the Region:

  • To weaken the Kurdish militarized opposition groups.
  • To confiscate weapons from Kurds.
  • Utilizing pro Turkish fighters in Idlib.
  • Turkey moved all their fighters from Idlib to the front lines of the operation against Kurdish fighters.
  • After the Kurdistan offensive, Turkey will create a buffer zone, which will be used to resettle Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
The current operation by Turkey has reportedly resulted in the death of over 500 people.

What will happen to the Kurds? Thus far US President Donald Trump has not done much pertaining to the Kurds. Under Obama’s government, the Kurds were getting US defense training and aide with weapons to stand up to Assad’s regime. The current operation by Turkey has reportedly resulted in the death of over 500 people, with over 100,000 currently displaced and refugees. NATO has not provided any support to the Kurds as well.

Turkey has been an ‘aggressor” since 1974 when they attacked North Cyprus. However, currently Erdogan claims he does not want to annex any regions in Syria.

One of the main concerns due to the destabilization in the region is the possible Islamic State terrorists getting out of prisons. In the north eastern area of Syria it is estimated there are 120,000 terrorists and their families. The incarcerated hail from 36 different countries.

The Kurds say they have struck a deal with Assad in order to get protection from Turkish aggression.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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