- In his lecture titled "5 major risks for 2020", Allan considered that the world will witness a state of global geopolitical attraction during the year 2020.
- Allan considered that the fifth and most prominent danger, in his opinion, in the year 2020 is the lack of vision and strategy of many emerging leaders in today's world.
- Strategist Sean Clary, Vice President of the Future of the World Foundation, in his speech entitled "The World in 2030," presented a set of expectations for the next decade.
International strategic expert, Nick Allan, CEO of Control Risks International, which specializes in risk management evaluations and recommendations, expected 2020 to carry five major risks affecting international politics and the global economy. These risks centered on the state of geopolitical attraction and the rise of a society activists, the growth of electronic wars, the fragility of economic and political conditions, and the rise of leaders without a vision or strategy. Strategic expert Sean Clary, Vice President of the Future of the World Foundation, saw that the world in 2030 will be more polarized, and the two experts pointed out that the world will witness a technological revolution in the next decade.
In his lecture titled “5 major risks for 2020”, Allan considered that the world will witness a state of global geopolitical attraction during the year 2020. The internal campaigns of the American presidential elections will drive many countries of the world to try to find a balance in their relations with the United States of America. China, for example, encourages other countries, such as North Korea and Iran to try to test the influence of the United States of America and exploit this situation.
The second danger, he said, is a growing community of activists around the world taking advantage of technology. This makes them a new authority capable of influencing public opinion, assessing the performance of governments, institutions, and companies and influencing their policies.
Allan explained that the third danger is that electronic wars will reach unprecedented levels. He expects that 2020 will be dangerous in this regard in light of the escalation of the digital transformation and the communication of business sectors online on a large scale. Political conflicts between countries also constitute a fertile environment for electronic attacks. It is a risk that will persist over the next decade and beyond, according to Allan.
He added that the fourth danger is the economic concern associated with the fragility of the political situation resulting from the inability of governments to achieve the required growth rates. This reflects negatively on the ability of several governments to maintain political and social stability, and limits the ability of institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF to intervene and deal with economic challenges in developing countries.
Allan considered that the fifth and most prominent danger, in his opinion, in the year 2020 is the lack of vision and strategy of many emerging leaders in today’s world. This causes them to exercise immediate reactions to the problems faced by their societies on the economic levels, proliferation of nuclear weapons, inequality, climate change, and political representation.
The international expert in risk management pointed out that during the 12th Arab Strategy Forum (ASF 2019), “Control Risks” launched its road map on global risks expected in the year 2020, to take advantage of its position as an international platform to monitor the trends of global economy and politics.
Nick Allan offers risk analysis and global cybersecurity in many global forums, has traveled in many regions of the world and has consulted in a number of international events, including the International Court of Justice conference, and the Africa Real Estate Investment Conference.
In turn, strategist Sean Clary, Vice President of the Future of the World Foundation, in his speech entitled “The World in 2030,” presented a set of expectations for the next decade, which he said will witness eight major global trends. Cleary said that the first global trend during the next decade is to change the centers of economic gravity in the world and return to their positions in eastern and southern Asia, as well as in China and India.
Cleary said that the second expectation that will form the next ten years is the growth of short-term economic crises in the global economy, due to the slowdown in manufacturing, investment, and trade exchange. The rise of barriers and tariffs and high debt service bills, on the other hand, is what is required from the countries of the region.
As for the third expectation that Cleary presented, it is the decline of the external presence of the United States of America and the decline of its international presence, especially in Europe and Asia. This is currently indicated by the growing Chinese influence in the South China Sea, stressing that the region needs to respond to this expectation by deepening its common defense capabilities.
The fourth trend that the world will witness during the next decade, according to Cleary, is the disintegration of the rules of the international system that had prevailed for a long time, which results in the fluctuation of relations that were entrenched for long periods.
The fifth major trend in the coming decade, according to Cleary, is the rise of regional geopolitical competition resulting from the decline of the influence of major countries, and the emergence of a regional vacuum that powers are fighting for influence to bridge it. For example, in the regions of the Mediterranean basin, Central Asia and the countries surrounding China and Russia. He stressed the need of countries in the region to enhance their defense capabilities in this time frame.
Cleary said that the sixth direction, which is one of the most prominent features of the next decade, is a digital biotechnology revolution. The first in the history of mankind, it will make huge investments in enhancing human capabilities in various sectors, foremost of which is health, daily life, and defense, expected to bring with it many ethical questions that need answers.
He concluded by saying that the region needs to take advantage of the available opportunities, give up interstate conflicts and develop its strategic thinking to achieve a regional transformation on the world stage in the next decade. Sean Clary, a former diplomat and strategic advisor to the World Economic Forum and founder of the World Future Foundation, lectures on topics of international strategies, mechanisms for conflict resolution, promoting development, and peace consolidation.