- Three ceasefire agreements have been broken in the Nagorno Karabakh.
- Pashinyan fired 3 intelligence chiefs in the span of his presidency.
- Pashinyan fired high ranking military official yesterday.
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh continues to escalate. Thus far, three ceasefire agreements have been violated. The latest was on this Sunday. Many issues are due to the President of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan. Yesterday, President Pashinyan fired another high ranking military official.
Furthermore, Armenia had an intelligence communications failure. The government should have paid attention to what was occurring this summer. On the surface, it looked like the usual front-line pull-in effect, when a local clash seems to develop into a serious battle by itself. The small sparks started to fly in the beginning of the summer.
Nevertheless, Armenia failed to see the larger picture. Namely, the increased meetings with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan gradually formed two shock corps, which brought together the most combat-ready parts of the entire army, including parts of the deep reserve. Warehouses were built closer to the contact line, and the fuel supply system was supplied.
All this activity could have been observed without even using high tech equipment and attention to detail could have sufficed. The question ponders, did the Armenian intelligence notify the leadership and Pashinyan of the possible change of the situation pertaining to the Nagorno-Karabakh region?
Therefore, would it be that Pashinyan failed to adequately act and give orders in this situation? Surely, the intelligence community did not fail. However, this question is unanswered at the present time.
Moreover, the fact that Azerbaijan was stock piling weapons would have been another indication. The proper assessment of the obvious signs were there. The Armenian military leadership easily could have mapped the model of the strategy that Azerbaijan was planning to use.
With such mapping, Armenia could have prepared the counter measures, and against the attacks in place. It is quite simple, given what was used in the latest series of attacks and the imported drones (UAVs) and self-propelled artillery supporting the advancing battalion-tactical groups (BTG).
Also, did President Pashinyan think with the allies’ alienation, and the win of 1994 would be a given this time? All the previous victories were due to the Soviets and their allies. Additionally, some three intelligence chiefs have been replaced and he managed to upset the intelligence community. Somehow, he possesses certain character traits as the US President Donald Trump.
At present, Armenia already lost certain safety buffers surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia won’t bounce back as quick from these losses. The soldiers and military leaders, who were trained by the Russian military, were fired by Pashinyan. An Armenian air defense is weakened and has major flaws as it stands.
Overall, the losses in Armenia are due to the weak leadership, failed response, and disregard of the intelligence readily available. Azerbaijan’s planning was too obvious and simple operation execution. The region and the locations are easily predictable what key positions the Azeris would likely to attack. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support and his ambitions are easily read as well.
Pashinyan’s presidency is being put to the test. It is plausible to believe that Armenia would have a coup once the tensions ease in Nagorno-Karabakh. The president is loosing the respect of the Armenian military. The question is only when will it happen, not if it will happen.