- The ceasefire agreement has been signed.
- Protests in Yerevan demanding resignation of the current Armenian government.
- Russian peacekeepers entering the Nagorno Karabakh region.
A ceasefire agreement has been signed between Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan pertaining to the Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The agreement entails Russian peacekeepers overseeing the mission. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that he is in Armenia, and continues to fulfill his duties.
The reason behind such a statement is due to the protests which have erupted outside the government building in Yerevan. The protesters are condemning Prime Minister Pashinyan pertaining to the agreement, and growing dissatisfaction with the political course.
It should be noted that some of the demonstrators went to the government dachas where Prime Minister Pashinyan and his family live. Law enforcement officers guarding the territory reported that the Prime Minister was not at home, and there were clashes between the police and demonstrators.
As reported by the Armenian news outlets, the Armenian government building was completely occupied by demonstrators. They managed to enter the building and damage the furniture, including some of the items in Prime Minster Pashynian office.
The ceasefire agreement was announced via the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister Pashinyan, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The agreement states the following:
- A complete cease-fire and all military operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will be Declared from 00: 00 Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.
- The Agdam region and territories held by the Armenian Side in the Gazakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan are returned to the Azerbaijani Side until November 20, 2020.
- Along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed, consisting of 1,960 soldiers with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, and 380 vehicles and special equipment.
- The Russian Federation’s peacekeeping contingent is being deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The term of stay of the Russian Federation peacekeeping contingent is 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the Parties declares their intention to terminate the application of this provision 6 months before the expiration of the term.
- In order to increase the effectiveness of monitoring the implementation of agreements by the parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping center for monitoring the ceasefire is being deployed.
- The Republic of Armenia returns the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan until November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region until December 1, 2020, while retaining the Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will provide a link between Nagorno – Karabakh and Armenia and will not affect the city of Shusha. By agreement of the Parties, a plan for the construction of a new route along the Lachin corridor, providing a link between Stepanakert and Armenia, will be determined in the next three years, with the subsequent relocation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions along the Lachin corridor.
- Internally displaced persons and refugees return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas under the control of the Office of the United Nations high Commissioner for refugees.
- Prisoners of war and other detained persons and the bodies of the dead are exchanged.
- All economic and transport links in the region are being unblocked. The Republic of Armenia provides transport links between the Western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. The Border service of the Federal security service of Russia controls transport traffic.
The agreement itself is not beneficial to anyone involved. There are reports that a Russian helicopter was shot at from the Armenia side, which could violate the newly-minted ceasefire agreement. This was done as a provocation. Azerbaijan insists it was an accident. However, Russia can retaliate for such actions.
It is clear that Prime Minister Pashinyan and his government will not survive. Moreover, it is plausible to expect there will be a change in the politics of Armenia.
Prime Minister Pashinyan managed to upset the Kremlin and also has been condescending to the Armenian military leaders. He made derogatory remarks towards his own military command and jailed some of the key figures in Armenia politics.
At present, he is a failure as a leader, and it could be that Armenia is in the midst of a coup attempt. The Armenian opposition does not agree with the cease fire agreement parameters.
Russia secured key positions in the region. Azerbaijan does not have financial backing needed to continue to the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is cooling off his backing. The reason would be Russian involvement, and also with the new US president elected, it could also mean a full-blown geopolitical trap for President Erdogan.
Azerbaijan did win the full unrest in Armenia and weakening of Armenia within as a domino effect of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This week will be crucial for Armenia.
Russian peacekeepers will be entering to secure the region. The US is too busy with domestic dealings and own politics to interfere.