Belarus — Sanctions and a Big Announcement

  • The third round of sanctions are expected to include the freezing of the loans from the European Investment Bank and a moratorium on the EU's funds transfer.
  • The protests in Belarus have not stopped, however, they are better controlled now.
  • Lukashenko stated he will not hold the post of President after the adoption of a new Constitution in the Republic.

This week, the European Parliament adopted a November resolution pertaining to tougher sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko and his government. According to the European Parliament, the previous actions were insufficient and not harsh enough. A majority of the EU parliament voted in favor of the tougher sanctions.

Alexander Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician serving as President of Belarus since the office was created on 20 July 1994. Western opponents of Lukashenko have described Belarus as ‘Europe’s last dictatorship.’

The third round of sanctions are expected to include the freezing of the loans from the European Investment Bank and a moratorium on the EU’s funds transfer. These measures are meant to force Lukashenko to hold a new presidential election.

The previous election was flawed, and the results were falsified. However, it does not mean that the leader of the opposition, Svetlana Tichanovskaya, won. She falsely believes her own level of popularity.

In reality, Tichanovskaya has experienced advisors, but on her own, she can’t even speak with eloquence in her native tongue. It is plausible that Lukashenko will have to turn to Russia for additional loans in light of the new looming sanctions.

Furthermore, the EU proposed to stop negotiations with Belarus until a new election. The question ponders, what will be the Kremlin’s response? At present, Lukashenko is at the Kremlin mercy, if he plans to hang on to power.

Lukashenko’s youngest son moved to Moscow and plans to reside there permanently. This is not uncommon, as Alexey Navalny’s children reside and study in the US even prior to his poisoning.

Moreover, the protests in Belarus have not stopped. However, the protests are better controlled now. In addition, the factory workers across the country are striking against the Lukashenko regime. Nevertheless, many factories remain open.

Sviatlana Heorhiyeuna Tsikhanouskaya is a Belarusian human rights activist and politician who ran for the 2020 Belarusian presidential election as the main opposition candidate.

Additionally, the US and EU do not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as a legitimate president. Russia is one of the few nations that recognizes Lukashenko’s presidential win.

Russia and the Belarusian intelligence believe the protests are fueled by the West, and Tichankovskaya is being paid by the West to continue her agenda. Of course, it is a propaganda campaign to discredit the Belarusian opposition.

After a meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, Lukashenko stated he will not hold the post of President after the adoption of a new Constitution in the Republic.

Lukashenko also made it clear that the election will be transparent and Russia will aid Belarus to have a fair process. It should be noted that Russia has been pushing for Lukashenko to start the process on the Belarusian constitutional amendments since September.

Overall, it is highly likely the new Belarusian presidential election will take place by the end of next year. Lukashenko will not stay in power over a year. In addition, it is expected that Lukashenko will move to Russia close to the new presidential election. The Kremlin expects to have everything in place prior to that. Russia will also aid Belarus to avoid the civil war scenario and chaos.

The EU is not going to win Belarus.  The EU has a lot of internal issues that need to be addressed first. Belarus will continue to have unrest until the new presidential election.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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