Belarus — Will Lukashenko Go Into Exile?

  • Victor Babariko may be a political contender.
  • Belarusian elites will prefer to bet on more predictable centers of power.
  • Russia, France and Germany can form alliance pertaining to the Belarus situation.

Belarus continues to be in turmoil. The flawed election Sunday resulted in massive protests, deaths, and mass detainment of protesters. Some released reports of being tortured by the Belarusian KGB. However, the alleged Wagner mercenaries arrested in Minsk have been released, and made it safely back to Russia.

Alexander Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician serving as President of Belarus since the office was created on 20 July 1994. Western opponents of Lukashenko have described Belarus as ‘Europe’s last dictatorship.’

This is a big shift from the pre-election anger towards Russia, and the claim of Russian meddling into the Belarusian election. Judging by the way events are developing, this is the end of Lukashenko as a politician. The maximum that he can count on is that he and his family will be allowed to go abroad, taking some of the hard-earned money.

The question is where would he even be accepted and given exile? China or North Korea, perhaps? It is highly unlikely that Russia would offer Lukashenko asylum in this case.

He successfully achieved a position where no one believes on using him as a puppet or even being useful at this point. His only chance was to be second fiddle in the amalgamation with Russia. His ego wanted more.

In itself, this is not good or bad, except that it can be stated that he fully deserved it. The most important thing is ahead: the issue of the format of the transfer of power, as well as who will become the successor to Lukashenko. These issues must be resolved in some way.

Apparently there will be a furious game about the future vector of the Belarusian policy. At present, the outcome, who will be in the helm of Belarus remains to be seen.

Viktar Babaryka can be considered a contender, and he seemed to have decent dialogue with Russia. As much as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is a hero, it is doubtful she will actually be President of Belarus going forward.

However, it is highly unlikely that Belarus will pick a pro-Russian candidate either. Such a candidate will not be able to secure a majority of votes in a fair election. The election last week was a pure farce.

In addition, this option is unlikely to be recognized by other interested parties, including those with whom Russia does  not want to spoil relations.  Moreover, it is not even a fact that the Union State betwixt Russia and Belarus will be preserved. For Russia, the best option is to establish a decent neutrality with Belarus going forward.

There are two plausible scenarios of the Belarus political station resolving: 

  1. Due to the big compromise, the figure will come to power in Belarus, more or less satisfied with the majority of interested parties. The most successful option in this case, is if it is possible to form a situational alliance.
  2. The US interferes with the support of globalist interests. Thus far, it can be challenging, given the divide within the US and the policy situation leading into the US election.
  3. Civil war in the nation for awhile. This is the worst scenario for all the parties involved.
The 2020 Belarusian protests, nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution, are a series of ongoing political demonstrations against the regime of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. The demonstrations, part of the Belarusian democracy movement, started occurring in the lead-up to and during the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office.

France could be involved in such an alliance, as well as Germany. Poland, Ukraine, and Russia are polar opposites, and Russia will not allow near its borders another Maidan scenario.

The issue with Ukraine is it has always been for sale to the highest bidder. Western Ukraine was under Poland prior to the Russian Revolution of 1917. Afterward, Ukraine was under Soviet control.

Now, Ukraine is misappropriating western funds provided, due to corruption, and having a mild version of the Celebrity Apprentice, Volodymyr Zelensky, for a president, in the mold of Donald Trump.

Of course, without much power and interest, even Belarus has a better economy than Ukraine. The prime example of success should be Poland. It has always been loyal to the West, after getting out from the totalitarian hell.

Additionally, Poland has very hard working, non-corrupt people, and are loyal to NATO. The Lublin triangle, now that it involves Ukraine, is a bit of a farce within itself.

At the same time, Old European nations like France and Germany would not want to give Poland a sphere of influence in Belarus without them. That is why a Russia-France-German alliance pertaining to the situation in Belarus could really happen.

It should be noted that Germany has a vested interest in the Nord Stream project.

It would have been simple, if Trump chose not to run again. The divide would have been marginal at that point. There could have been a more centrist Republican as opposed to the far-right fringe political leader of the country.

Therefore, this increases the probability that at least some of the Belarusian elites will prefer to bet on more predictable centers of power.  That is why the Belarus issue could be outsourced by the US to Poland and Lithuania.

Poland is very capable of handling the situation. Lithuania is not strong alone but in the group effort, it can manage.

The final third option is not very likely to happen.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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