- Turkey will be facing geopolitical trap.
- France and Germany will have better relationship with US.
- US will highly likely rejoin the Paris Accord.
On November 3rd, American citizens voted to elect the new President of the United States. The winner is Democrat Joe Biden, who has a long history in politics. Many major changes are coming to the US’ national and foreign policies in the new year. Furthermore, for the European Union, it will be a welcome change.
Germany and France will restore positive diplomatic and trade relations with the US. President Donald Trump has been a challenge to deal with for the majority of the leaders around the world.
The relationship between the EU and US soured after President Trump derailed the trade agreement between the EU and US that President Barack Obama brokered.
Even the welcoming and polite Canada experienced the wrath of Trump. Nevertheless, President-Elect Biden will bring new life to American politics.
The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will have a very challenging time ahead, and a lot of choices that would have to be made.
President Erdogan may just have lost all hope of ever having Fethullah Gülen extradited to Turkey. Gülen has been living in self-imposed exile in the US since 1999.
According to President Erdogan, Gülen planned and helped orchestrate the failed 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. On the other hand, President Erdogan will almost immediately be asked about the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya with a rational proposal to immediately halt the activity in the region.
It is also plausible to expect that an attempt will be made to establish an alliance between the United States and Turkey against Russia’s interests, both in Syria and in the Caucasus region. At the same time, President Erdogan’s attempt to resist may be perceived with painful action by the US, which would include the activation of the support for the Turkish opposition.
It should be noted that President Erdogan is viewed negatively by the opposition, and was condemned for his use of force in Syria. However, President Erdogan already has managed to end up in the geopolitical trap. His brazen actions that were denounced by France and myriad other nations will come to an end.
Nevertheless, President Erdogan can not be trusted, and has zero loyalties. His only dream is the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.
The Baltic States do not play any significant role in European politics, but play a big role in the NATO scenario. There are many training exercises that took place in the Baltic States. Also, they are very important aggregate for the anti-Putin sentiment.
Estonia has thrown a curve ball pertaining to Joe Biden. According to Delfi, Estonia’s Interior Minister and the Minister of Finance made statements of their disbelief of former Vice President Biden becoming president, and even went further, claiming that it is unconstitutional election results.
Such statements would be in line with Russia’s new propaganda campaign to cause further division and riots in the USA. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dream scenario is for the US to have a civil war, instead of healing the escalated divide under Donald Trump.
Alexei Navalny congratulated Joe Biden winning the US’ presidential election. In this case, Navalny is trying to score some funding to fight Putin’s regime. He also designed a clever campaign that Russian President is ill with Parkinson’s Disease and will be leaving the office in January 2021.
Navalny hoping that US foreign policy will have a window to get funding, the same way Ukraine was supported under President Obama. In the case of Navalny, he has no clout and is absolutely weak and useless on the political arena. He could be a useful tool for the social media angle.
Ukraine will be another one to watch after President-Elect Biden takes office. Ukraine’s current President, Volodymir Zelensky, has been loosing support and does not have what it takes to strengthen Ukraine. It is even possible that former President Petro Poroshenko can make a comeback in Ukraine under Biden.
There is also a big possibility that President Zelensky may be impeached, or he will just leave the office himself, saying his passion is always been in acting.
The US most likely will come back to the Paris Accord, and will re-establish important environmental policies and address climate change. The populist movement will be on the back burner, and the EU will feel some form of stability.
However, the Coronavirus pandemic has an adverse effect on the majority of the economies. Therefore, this factor will continue for sometime. The geopolitical balance of the US influence will be restored on the global scale.