- Rosneft sold its actives in Venezuela to the Russian government.
- Russia de facto owns part of Venezuela.
- The Russia military could deploy to Venezuela to defend Maduro.
Russia de-facto now owns Venezuela, taking advantage of the country’s extended suffering. The economy is depleted and the country is in severe turmoil. It does not help that coronavirus has effected economies around the globe.
Additionally, the US unsealed indictments against 14 officials and government-connected parties. Currently, there is a reward offered of $55 million for Nicolas Maduro and four others according to US Attorney General William Barr. He called the regime “corrupt.” One of the indictments is out of New York, where prosecutors allege Maduro and socialist party boss Diosdado Cabello (the head of the constitutional assembly) of conspiring with Colombian rebels and members of the military to support the drug trade including cocaine trafficking into the US. Sixty nations including the US do not recognize Maduro as the President of Venezuela. At this time the US only recognizes Juan Guaidó as the Venezuelan leader.
However, there is a new development. Since US unsealed their indictments this week, the Russian Rosneft Corporation sold their entire interest in Venezuelan oil to the Russian government and other Russian companies are expected to do the same with any interests in Venezuelan business they own. Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin owns part of Venezuelan.
PJSC Rosneft Oil Company is a Russian integrated energy company headquartered in Moscow. Rosneft specializes in the exploration, extraction, production, refinement, transport, and sale of petroleum, natural gas, and petroleum products.
This new development means that any operations or attacks on Venezuela will be interpreted as an attack against Russia as well, giving the Russian government the excuse to start military action. Russia will have a large influence on who will be the future president of Venezuela. Unless Maduro follows his instructions from China and Russia, they will help him eliminate Term Limits. He could be another lifetime president.
Certain Russian sources have suggested that Russia will transition from private defense contractors in Venezuela to sending Russian military troops to maintain security within the country. While many interpreting the Rosneft investment dump as due to the US Maduro indictment, it is actually a strategic move by the Russian government to have the official capacity to enter Venezuela. Under another plausible scenario, if Maduro ever feels trapped, he would seek protection in Russia and Putin will aid in choosing his successor who will be favorable to the East instead of the West. At this time Guaido is more favorable to the West and the US.
Overall, the geopolitical games between East and West will continue. The chess game will be played. The winner remains to be seen. Thus far, the Kremlin has a strong hold on Venezuela and continues to support Maduro.