- China intelligence report states a possibility of military conflict with US.
- It is highly likely the Kremlin will severe ties with China in the near future.
- There is a chance of a divide within China between Komsomol members and XI.
On Monday May 4, Reuters published leaked information pertaining to a classified report compiled by the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, China’s top intelligence body and key intelligence structure of the PRC. The report was told to Reuters by sources familiar with the contents of the document.
The report states that due to the “anti-China” campaign in the world fueled by the United States, blaming China for the Coronavirus pandemic, the possibility of armed conflict between China and the US has increased. Yet, the report clearly fails to point out that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese Lab, something confirmed recently by a French Nobel Prize winner and virologist.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed there is indeed evidence about the coronavirus’ lab origin. The Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, which includes US, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK, created a 15 page report alleging China intentionally concealed or destroyed evidence of a coronavirus outbreak. The document claims that China destroyed evidence of the presence of coronavirus in laboratories and refused to provide biomaterials to scientists developing the vaccine. These are the same tactics used by China during the 1977 pandemic outbreak from a Chinese lab in Beijing.
The Chinese report, which came to the desk of Chinese President XI Jinping, says that anti-Chinese sentiment is increasing in the EU. Now China is starting to blame the US for the stalling of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative.
At the same time, it seems the Kremlin is considering distancing itself from China. Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska already called to investigate and reprimand China on his Telegram channel. This is why has China has launched a propaganda campaign, geared at Russians, using fear mongering tactics.
There are two main factions within China. On one side is Chinese President XI. Since, removing term limits in China he has become a lifetime ruler. On the other side is the Komsomol– the All-Union Leninist Young Communist League. Komsomol, is also known as The Communist Youth League of China, is made up of Chinese youth between the ages of 14 and 28, and is run by the Communist Party of China.
A Majority of league members were educated in the West and come from the Chinese nouveau riche class. They are used to luxury items/living. Any strong stance against the west would lead to China being cut-off from the world and plunged into a quasi Cold War with the US.
This could cause a great divide within China. It could mean the end of XI and the beginning of this century’s Tiananmen scenario. History tends to repeat itself. The events in China’s Tiananmen Square involved civil unrest in 1989. The mass protests were suppressed at the height of the Soviet Union’s “perestroika” period and just two years before the collapse of the USSR.
China also had its own “perestroika” known as the “policy of openness and reform.” It started in 1979, and the ideological mastermind and organizer of the crackdown on the “Maidan” in the center of Beijing was the same man who was the “architect of reforms”…Deng Xiaoping (during the height of the protests Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev visited China).
Russian social media reacted strongly on May 4 to news of the Chinese report. The consensus is that Russia will not get involved in any attempt by China to threaten use of force directed at the US. Additionally, statements coming out from the Kremlin indicate a foreign policy change is coming in the next 2 months.
From a strategic prospective, China won’t be successful in any military operations against the US. It is very hard to have military operations from the other side of the ocean. China can’t just start launching missiles. Besides North Korea, China has few allies left if Russia completely distances itself. The only threat China can cause in the US is activating sleeper cells who might attempt to disrupt and steal US classified information on a massive scale.
The US needs to take active measures against China which should include sanctions and sending back Chinese nationals working on any sensitive information or research within US academia.
If China tries any type of offensive operations against the US, they will be completely alienated, their economy destroyed, and they will lose any type of geopolitical advantage. There could be another Soviet Union-style regime collapse coming soon.