- Russia warned Israel pertaining military operation in Syria.
- Israel will hold parliamentary election next month.
- Russia is hoping cooperation with Israel via diplomacy.
Russia warned Israel pertaining its readiness to shoot down Israeli planes, if they resume flights to Syria. The information became available on the EVO RUS. Furthermore, Russia believes that Israel aggressive behavior carries the potential threat to the Russian military troops in Syria.
Russia prefers to diffuse the situation via the diplomatic channel. Yet, if the diplomacy does not work, Russia does rule out the military action. However, Russia hopes Israel will back off.
More important for the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the issue of Russian-Israeli relations. The fact is that, judging by the Russian regional activity, the Middle East is quite important for Russia. Russia sees several routes of activity in the Middle East, some of which are somehow connected with Israel.
Moreover, the dealings between Russia and Israel is that Russia gives more than it gets back from Israel. The potential of the Russia and Israel cooperation is 50/50. The only way Israel would cooperate with Russia, would be due to a real threat of the Islamic (Pro-Iranian movements), whilst it would have to be a real threat to the Israeli population. Hence, the Israeli politicians would only then consider real cooperation with Russia.
It should be noted, since Donald Trump is no longer the president of the US, Israel will not receive preferential treatment from the Joe Biden administration.
Thus far, Israel is conducting risk assessment, if in fact the Russian presence in the Middle East is long lasting. Russia plans to stay in the Middle East and once Israel understands the permanency, only then will Israel open the dialogue with Russia in regards to the cooperation and establishing long lasting agreements within the Middle East. Israel is already realizing, US foreign policy under Biden will not have a lot of priorities given to Israel.
Israel population growth is attributed to the growth of the Arab population and the Orthodox Jews. Therefore, Israeli military in the future, will have the lower numbers. Orthodox Jews do not have an interest in participating in the Israeli defense and are very focused on following the long time traditions. The Arabs have an allegiance to the Islamic world and Koran.
It is plausible, Israel may experience the financial crunch. Coronavirus pandemic played a role in the weakening of the economies around the globe. In the case of Israel, whose main sponsor is the US, it could experience the decrease in funding. Biden administration could reduce the subsidies and financial injections in the Israeli defense budget.
Biden seems to be focused on Russia and sustaining Ukraine. At the same time, it would have been wiser to support Israel. Israel always has innovations. Israel is number one in the world in the drone technology. The funds given to Israel go to the good use and US gets back ten fold. On the other hand, Ukraine is a bottomless pit, without any results. In fact, it seems Ukraine is interested in auctioning of the last of the public owned resources to China.
The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu still has legal troubles to address. Netanyahu is accused of the corruption and the abuse of power. In Israel, Netanyahu is either seen as an apologist or a destroyer, it depends which side you are on the Israeli political spectrum. Next month, Israel will hold the parliamentary election. After, the election it is highly likely Israel will stay on the even keel in order to reset the domestic political system. Netanyahu has made a lot of big statements backed by Trump and this approach will not work any longer.
Overall, Israel possibly will be changing its rhetoric towards Russia.