- Major foreign Guaidó supporters seem too engrossed in their own internal problems to assist.
- Maduro is likely to stay in power for a few more years, easily.
- Some of Guaidó’s closest associates have broken ranks with him and are alleged to be in negotiations with Maduro’s government.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is currently locked in a leadership muddle with opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The clash has caused the oil-rich country to be further isolated by the international community. Crippling sanctions designed to undermine Maduro’s leadership have dragged the nation into the throes of socio-economic and political trepidation. With international support for Guaidó seemingly waning, and no resolution in sight, Venezuela is facing a difficult dilemma.
Nations Supporting Guaidó are Grappling with their Own Problems
At the beginning of the year, Guaidó was regarded as a formidable leader who would usurp Maduro from power. Over 50 foreign nations, including the United States, backed his presidential bid. Many of the world leaders that had initially pledged to support him are, however, grappling with their own political issues, and this is causing a divergence from Venezuela’s hassles.
U.S. President Donald Trump had earlier on in the year said he would use America’s economic leverage to force Maduro out of power. Now, he’s dealing with his own impeachment back at home. With elections around the corner, Trump’s focus is unlikely to be drawn to the flailing Latin American nation.
Anti-government protests have also rocked Colombia, which has long supported Guaidó’s bid. The demonstrations, which call for economic reforms and a stop to the privatization of state assets, have made the ruling party quite unpopular and reduced its influence. The events have attracted over 200,000 protesters. Spurred on by similar rallies in Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia, the unrest in the region has detracted attention away from Venezuela’s problems.
Despite the setbacks and frustrations, many Venezuelan citizens deem Guaidó to be the best candidate for the presidency. He’s still about three times more popular than Maduro, and if elections were to be held today, he would win by a landslide. A free and fair election in Venezuela is, however, a little more than a pipe dream.
Guaidó is credited for galvanizing the country’s opposition, which at the beginning of the year seemed like a menacing threat to the present administration. However, the political stalemate that ensued left Maduro entrenched in power. His leadership is supported by the army and a slew of nations such as Russia, Cuba, and China. Their assistance is likely to easily buttress Maduro’s administration for at least the next couple of years. With the country’s inflation rate currently forecasted to reach 10 million percent by the end of the year, the country’s socio-economic future looks grim.
Some of Guaidó’s closest associates have broken ranks with him and are alleged to be in negotiations with Maduro’s government, while others have been accused of corruption. Some political pundits argue that the disconcerting situation is likely to impact his capacity to energize the already disillusioned masses. It will be interesting to see how the nation’s opposition prevails over its current political problems in 2020.