- Pashinyan jailed a friend of Vladimir Putin.
- Putin asked for his release, Pashinyan declined.
- Azerbaijan wants the return of the Nagorno Karabakh.
The escalation of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict happened in September and continues today. The President of Turkey, Recep Erdogan is supporting Azerbaijan. The conflict is pertaining the Nagorno Karabakh region. Azerbaijan believes the territories should be returned to them.
According to the UN, the territories are supposed to go back to the Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, while the main reason of the escalation is Erdogan, the Armenian president Nikol Pashinyan is responsible as well. Furthermore, Nikol Pashinyan is not favored by the Russian president Vladimir Putin.
One of the reasons is that Pashinyan jailed Robert Kocharyan. Kocharyan was the leader of the Nagorno Karabakh Army with many awards and a personal friend of the Vladimir Putin.
However, when Putin asked for his release, Pashinyan declined. Hence, Putin will not forgive or forget such, including making unfavorable comments in this case. Therefore, it is plausible that Putin will not help Pashinyan outside the scope of the interests of Russia. It should be noted, Kocahrian is not the only ranking officer, who is been jailed by Pashinyan.
Moreover, prior to this conflict Pashinyan sold out special service CSTO with Russia. Therefore, he could be compared to the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko.
Both individuals will sell themselves to the highest bidder. Lukashenko is barely hanging on to power in Belarus and his future is unclear. Armenia is at the crossroads as well. Pashinyan presidency is being tested.
Additionally, Pashinyan jailed the Chairman of the Board of the Union of Volunteers “Yerkrap” on trumped-up charges of allegedly stolen “stewed meat” accompanying this with a large-scale show with a heartwarming reading of a letter from a little girl allegedly found in stolen boxes of aid to soldiers.
It is not surprising in the former Soviet Block. The irony, if you are going to be needing Putin after, it is a career suicide to jail his friends. Also, Pashinyan should have strengthened relationship with the West like Georgia did.
Pashinyan discredited many generals in the Armenian army. He made fun of the senior officers. He also caused divide between rich and poor and actually caused inner conflicts within Armenia.
There are continued reports that Pashinyan utilizes KGB style surveillance on the Armenian opposition and even scare tactics on their family members. Pashinyan also has a flawed relationship with Iran. The breakdown came due to the opening of the Armenian Embassy in Israel this year.
Overall, one must conclude that Armenia has no allies in the world. Putin tolerates Armenia, due to its strategic location and Russia geopolitical interests. However, outside of such, no nation will go above and beyond for Armenia because of the Pashinyan.
In conclusion. given the current situation, Azerbaijan knows Armenia is at its weakest. Erdogan calculated this scenario as well. Azerbaijan has been preparing for this conflict for sometime. The expansion of the army, the stock piling of the defense equipment and having close ties to Erdogan.
This year, Erdogan has been in Azerbaijan on multiple occasions.The flawed relationship with Russia and Iran makes Armenia weak and it is plausible Armenia will loose Nagarno Karabakh. It is not because of the successful strategy of the Azerbaijan, but the weakening of the Armenia by Pashinyan.