- The strategy is to damage and cause a deep economic recession in Russia.
- The report discusses in detail measures to turn the Russian population against their authorities.
- This may backfire and produce anti-American sentiment.
The Rand Corporation has published a repot on how to “contain Russia.” The purpose of the report is to provide recommendations to the newly-elected US President, Joe Biden. According to the report, the US will use any means necessary, except starting a militarized conflict with Russia.
The strategy is to damage and cause a deep economic recession in Russia. The Russian economy— not the army, politics, or society— is identified as Russia’s main weakness. During the Soviet Era, it was the Cold War and Russia being the enemy. At present, the Rand corporation reiterates that Russia continues to be the enemy.
In reality, Russia is a rival and has the polar opposite political interests. Nevertheless, actually China, and now Turkey, is an enemy to the West, women, equality, human rights, and equality. This also includes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s aggression around the globe. Still, Russia should not be discounted as a threat to the West.
Additionally, the new report recommends flooding world markets with cheap oil, persuading Europeans to accept new sanctions, and discouraging the EU from buying gas from Russia. These measures are considered very effective.
Nevertheless, the recent possibility of the United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, while not complying with the oil production reduction agreement, could be in line with the Rand report recommendations. Nevertheless, Russia could retaliate against the USA by combining forces with China.
Russia may also be responsible for supplying weapons to Ukraine via proxies. In Syria, Russia can arm the opposition. There is a possibility of the mode-change in Belarus. The USA will not spend an enormous sum to gain control in the Caucasus, Moldova, or Central Asia. Hence, at best, the US will keep their interests in checks and balances.
The report discusses in detail measures to turn the Russian population against their authorities, but there is a risk that in Russia, on the contrary, there will be anti-American sentiments and everything will go to the hands of the Russian authorities.
After January 1st, 2021, everything will be controlled by the Kremlin, and the agencies are getting dismantled. All these risks are carefully considered by specialists in the State Department.
There also a suggestion by Rand to further damage the Russian image on the international arena, but this task requires the assistance of the European nations. However, there is a question about the strength and cooperation within Europe. Germany and Poland have been plagued by protests. Hungary is fed up with the European Union.
The most interesting part of the Rand report is pertaining to the military segment. Everything is carefully calculated so that there is no risk of a direct collision with Russia or a tactical loss to the United States. Rand suggests drawing Russia into an arms race, but the costs could actually hurt the US.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is not Mikhail Gorbachev, and there is no chance of another Perestroika. The report suggests building up weapons and bombers on the Western border of Russia. It should be noted that the US will not build a navy base on the Black Sea. There is a possibly of using Romania.
Overall, the report is not surprising. The suggestions in the report are not new, and the same playbook has been used for decades. There needs to be a new approach. The new approach can’t include the same methodology.
American-style democracy is not attractive to the Russian populous. The approach has to resonate with the Russians in order to make changes within Russia. Thus far, it is a predictable report.