Russia, Lublin Triangle React to Lukashenko

  • The opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, left Belarus and now is located in Lithuania.
  • This week there were protests in Kiev in front of the Belarus Embassy.
  • The election results in Belarus are not recognized by the West.

Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine formed a geopolitical triplet called the Lublin Triangle. There are conjoined statements by the  Foreign Ministers of the three countries expressing “deep concern over the escalation of the situation in Belarus,” following the country’s presidential elections.

The 2020 Belarusian protests, nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution, are a series of ongoing political demonstrations against the regime of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. The demonstrations, part of the Belarusian democracy movement, started occurring in the lead-up to and during the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office.

The opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, left Belarus and now is located in Lithuania. There was an alleged assassination attempt on Tsikhanouskaya.  She made a video while in Lithuania containing well wishes and staying safe, with a lot of mild political statements and a plea to stop the street violence.

The Belarusian opposition is starting to create a government in exile, and will also seek recognition by the world community as the legitimate President of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Furthermore, one of the protesters lost his life in the explosion.

Belarus’ government issued the statement that the protester died due to his own explosive device, which was allegedly mishandled. That is clear a misleading statement in itself. Same as Lukashenko claiming almost 80% of the vote in Sunday’s presidential election.

Moreover, the batch is planned to be hard, in the style of the final “revolution of dignity.” On the second day, the protesters armed themselves with Molotov cocktails, burned tires, and used pyrotechnics. You have to change the original settings on the go.

This means only one thing: there may be a lot of victims. The US State Department’s statement on the events in Minsk is unequivocal: they do not recognize the elections, demand a “fair result,” and actually threaten Belarus with international isolation.

Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are heavily involved in the Belarus election. The protests even spilled outside of the Belarus’ Embassy in Kiev. On Tuesday, radicals in Kiev staged a performance near the Belarusian Embassy.

Moreover, recently re-elected Polish President Andrzej Duda is already paying compliments on the “courage of Belarusian activists who defend the interests of democracy and freedom.” Former Polish Prime Minister and President of the European Council Donald Tusk also admired the “dedication of the defenders of the Kiev Maidan.”

The LDPR — Liberal Democratic Party of Russia is a socially conservative, nationalist, economically interventionist political party in Russia led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky since its founding in 1989. Despite the party’s name, it is frequently described as “neither liberal nor democratic.”

Belarus’ government proudly announced detaining Molotov cocktail producers in Minsk. Additionally, Belarus’ KGB arrested anyone who was organizing protesters, and seized their assets. The protests now moved from the Downtown Minsk to the suburbs.

Lukashenko is not liked in Russia. According to the leader of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Belarus is ripe to end the Lukashenko regime.”

“He betrayed everyone: Russia, the West, Ukraine, and his people. Behaves like a tyrant. We supported him 20 years ago. But he does everything so that we do not have any kind of union. He lives by the principle of a parasite, a dependent, take away the support of Russia – everything will collapse there.”

Lukashenko also does not recognize Crimea, Ossetia and Abkhazia. Belarus does not allow Russia to put military bases there. That is despite NATO bases approaching the Baltic States and threatening Russia directly from there. “And it would be fine to fool his head for free, but he pulls from us all the time,” Zhirinovsky added.

The same sentiment can be felt across Russia in general. Lukashenko burned his relations with Russia. Hence, it is highly likely Russia will let Lukashenko sink or swim on his own.

Overall, Belarus will not have peace for some time now. The outcome only remains to be seen. The future for Lukashenko is bleak in many ways.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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