New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Friday that he would not be a candidate for the 2020 presidential race, and was dropping out of the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries and caucuses. Since announcing his interest in becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, de Blasio’s candidacy had never been taken seriously and his performance in the opinion polls wasn’t good either.
Wednesday’s debate was, aside from discussions on free college for undocumented immigrants, and whether to throw Donald Trump in jail or beat him first, a debate on a single subject: Joe Biden’s fitness as the Democratic nominee. There had been tremendous doubts following his first round face-plant in June. This time, Joe came ready. While he didn’t throw a perfect game, he did more than enough to get the win. The combative, belligerent Uncle Joe, who shredded both Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan before, returned on Wednesday night, after seven years of hibernation. And he had jokes.
Round 2 of the regular season for the Democratic presidential nomination kicked off Tuesday. Ten candidates, who were randomly chosen (and better selected than NBC), took the stage this night in Detroit. The other half, including presumptive former Vice President Joe Biden, will do so on Wednesday. Candidates did their best to put some distance between themselves and their rivals, with questions from CNN moderators more designed to generate clicks, views, likes, and retweets than actual substance. A host of issues were addressed, but the theme of this night was fear.
Democratic voter surveys indicate that climate change is one of the most urgent issues among presidential primary voters, so here comes US Senator Kristen Gillibrand (D) with her “Climate Change Moonshot Plan” that would “hold polluters accountable” and phase out fossil fuels along with many other goals.
Following the first debates last month, polling for the Democratic presidential contenders coalesced around five main candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg put some distance between themselves and the rest of the two-dozen strong field. Monday was Disclosure Day for the field, and sure enough, Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris came out on top of the money race. Money talks, of course. Not always on its own, but often in echoes. With debate requirements tightening in the fall, the second quarter numbers offer the best picture yet as to who will go the furthest and who might be going home the soonest.
The big prize for Democrats is California and many people thought Sen. Kamala Harris would be favored, especially after her strong debate performance. If not Harris, than possibly former Vice President Joe Biden or even Sen. Bernie Sanders who had good showing in the 2016 primary election, in the State of California. However, the latest poll had Sen. Elizabeth Warren in first place, Harris in second by only a very thin margin, with Biden now down to third. If Harris can’t secure her home state in the Primary, her chances of success are thin.
Former Vice President Joe Biden former (D) is down but not out. He needs to find a working message. He is always being attacked and focusing solely on Trump is not working. He has failed to draw big rally crowds or a mass following. He holds the best pathway to the nomination but he is loosing steam even faster than most people believed he would. At the presidential scale, he is a poor candidate but a very likable guy. It appears he hardly ever controls or leads the conversation and often seems to be rambling.
Democratic presidential candidate, and four-term Congressman, Eric Swalwell (D-CA), announced the end of his brief campaign on Monday. The 38 year-old, who called on former Vice President Joe Biden to “pass the torch” during his lone debate performance, never came close to grabbing it, or any traction in the race. Swalwell becomes the first Democratic candidate— “major” or otherwise— to drop out. There are several others, polling at 1% or less, who should probably stop wasting their time and follow suit.
For a while it seemed like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were going to be the two Democrats to duke it out for the party’s presidential nomination, but that may no longer be the case. Senator Kamala Harris has become a major contender for the nomination almost overnight. She was able to go toe to toe with the older and more experienced politicians during the last debate, and most pundits concluded that she won the debate.
While it would be foolish to extrapolate an entire football season after week one, it can often be revealing as to which teams are moving in which directions. The first debates of the 2019-20 presidential primary season must’ve had quite an effect on the pollsters, donors, activists, and staffs. The playoffs may not start until next year, but there has already been considerable movement in each area— and at least one semi-major candidate is ready to push the panic button.
The advice to “dance like nobody’s watching” has featured prominently on dorm room walls and Etsy merchandise for years. Perhaps the ratings will bear this out, but former Vice President Joe Biden may have wished no one was watching his debate performance Thursday night. In the main event, following Wednesday night’s undercard, Biden looked every one of his 76 years, and then some— even compared to the spry, 76-year old democratic socialist from Vermont. It’s a long way to Iowa and New Hampshire, but Joe has a long way to go.
It was derided as the kids’ table debate, and it’s safe to say Wednesday night’s opening act lived down to the hype. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and nine challengers in single digits took the stage in Miami for NBC’s first Democratic debate of the 2019-20 presidential campaign. Emphasizing their similarities, few stood out positively from the field. The first group of ten (with ten more coming Thursday night) debated health care, immigration, foreign policy, and how to run against an unpopular president when things are going well.
Just when you thought the field couldn’t get any bigger, the Democratic presidential race was joined, again. On Sunday, former Pennsylvania Congressman, and three-star admiral, Joe Sestak, threw his cover into an ever-expanding ring. He is the twenty-fifth major candidate to do so. While Sestak’s relatively late entry into the race may not pose much of a threat to the presumptive frontrunner, Joe Biden, it may signify that certain Democrats think he’s already in trouble.
You might have to go back to 1811 to find a freshman Member of Congress who has attracted as much national attention as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). That was when Kentucky’s Henry Clay became Speaker of the House his first day on the job. Since her shocking primary upset of Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley nearly a year ago, the ex-Bronx bartender has attracted a Twitter following nearly rivaling that of her arch-nemesis from Queens. AOC made her first appearance on a Sunday show since her election, This Week with George Stephanopoulos, and hinted at real “animus” between her fellow progressive backbenchers in Congress and the Democratic leadership, particularly on the issue of impeachment.
For someone who speaks so often, and so fondly, of “democratic socialism,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) seems to have no idea what it is. On Wednesday, the two-time independent candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination delivered a “major speech,” entitled “How Democratic Socialism Is the Only Way to Defeat Oligarchy and Authoritarianism.” It was the second time he has attempted to describe this utopian society entirely free from want. And, just as in 2015, he left all but his most dedicated Berners wanting.
On polls, former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has about a 20 point lead over Sen Elizabeth Warren (D). Remember polls are not very accurate if the people being polled don’t trust the poll takers. With that said Biden has the clear advantage. Studies say that if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief or to what they are personally representing, they will not be completed forthright.
A Snyder Texas LGBT activist, actress, and transgender small business owner has put her bid in for election in 2020. Addison “Addy” Perry-Franks has announced that she is running for District 83 of the Texas House of Representatives. She wants to make a difference for her district, the State of Texas and for the USA. Her slogan “Let’s put the US back in the USA,” stand for equality, and people standing together to support equal rights for LGBT, minorities, people from all religions and nationalities.
A gaggle of presidential hopefuls gathered in suddenly-relevant California this weekend for their first big audition. The better-than-bakers’ dozen served as headliners in San Francisco for the California Democratic Party’s state convention. A crowd of 5,000 delegates heard the pitches and policies, and may be the best look yet at what the national party’s base of activists and partisan primary voters are looking for from their presidential standard-bearer next year.
With Biden’s poll numbers coming down, you may be wondering what is hurting him and what is helping.
The Good News
Former Vice President Joe Biden has the best political lane to maintain his lead as the frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s nomination. In marketing we call this a niche. He has the conservative and more moderate Democrats. That might not produce as much Twitter activity or create as much internet buzz, but it does mean he holds the greatest number of votes.
Spirituality guru, self-help author, and one-time congressional candidate, Marianne Williamson, qualified for a spot in the first series of Democratic debates on Thursday. A friend of Oprah Winfrey, Williamson’s previous experience in electoral politics was in 2014, when she finished fourth in California’s jungle primary, for the congressional seat currently occupied by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA).
Can anyone find Howard Schultz ?
President Donald Trump (R) is a billionaire who ran, won the Republican nomination and became president without any political experience. This gave a lot of other egocentric billionaires the idea that they could become president too:
- Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, running as an Independent.
- Former Independent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as a Democrat.
- Hedge Fund manager, environmental activist and Democrat Tom Steyer.
Presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is on top of the world right now. The polling world.
The question is can he hold his top position for 16 months? The hard negative campaigning against him hasn’t really started yet. According to Gallup (May 15th), 53 percent of the public has a favorable opinion of Biden, compared to only 35 percent with a negative opinion. That’s an 18 point favorability spread. President Donald Trump currently has a 42.1 favorable rating and 53.4 unfavorable rating giving him an 11.3 point negative rating.
Trump has been focusing on three major issues during the last few days: immigration, tariffs, and infrastructure. Of those issues, infrastructure is the one that seems at least a bit refreshing. The last time Trump really made infrastructure a major focus was during his 2016 campaign.
During that campaign Trump compared U.S. infrastructure to that of “a third world country.” His promise to rebuild and reinvest in the country’s infrastructure was something that excited and pleased many Americans.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) continues to lead all rivals for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. The only other candidate with double digit support is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D), and Biden leads him by 20 points.
Biden also leads in a head-to-head match up with President Donald Trump in the key Electoral College states of Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Biden in North Carolina. The men are tied in Arizona. However, it’s worth remembering that nearly every pollster was wrong about the 2016 presidential outcome.
Our article on April 27 had Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) on April 27 fifth among Democratic primary candidates at 6.3%. Today the Real Clear Politics Poll has her in third place at 8.8%. It appears she flipped places with Senator Kamala Harris (D) who was in 3rd who is now polling in 5th during the same time frame.
Warren, out of the vast number of candidates running for president in 2020, has the most ideas and is the most policy driven–such as breaking up Big Tech and protecting public lands. She appears to be the Democratic Party’s “academia candidate.”
Vice President Joe Biden (D) launched his candidacy in Pennsylvania, a purple state where President Donald Trump (R) only beat Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by .007 percent, or just over 44,000 votes out of almost 6 million.
Prior to Trump, the last six presidential elections in the keystone state were won by the Democratic ticket. Our guess is that he will soon show up in Michigan where the Trump winning margin was even smaller (only .002 percent). The six Great Lake State elections prior to Trump were also all won by the DNC candidate.
Vice President Joe Biden has taken a 6 point lead and has been able to hold the press attention during his presidential launch this week. Joe Biden now has to establish that he can:
- Establish himself as a top fundraiser for his candidacy. Having polls showing him beating Trump should help.
- Keep the high attention of the left wing press, with no major gaffes.
- Keep the the others in his party from doing too much damage to him, especially the liberal wing, knowing he has a long track record of being a mainstream politician.
- Former Vice President Joe Biden officially announced his entry in to the 2020 presidential race, with a YouTube video Thursday morning. “Everything that has made America America is at stake,” Biden said. “We have to remember who we are. This is America.”
Vice President Joe Biden (D) is leading current President Donald Trump (R) by 7.8% in the 2020 Presidential election poll.
Please remember in the last presidential election almost every poll had Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading President Trump, and most polls had her leading substantially.
Either way this must be consider very good news and a strong start for Joe Biden taking an early lead. Especially knowing as of April 23 their were 229 Democratic candidates who officially filed to run for President.
Source: RealClear Politics
- According to “people familiar with the discussions who have been told about them by top aides,” former Vice President Joe Biden will officially announce his candidacy for President on Wednesday. Biden, five years President Trump’s senior, would be the oldest person elected to the presidency, if his third run for the White House is successful.
- New York City is currently facing the worst financial situation since February of 1975. The city is running a deficit and could be in real trouble if we had a recession, or a further flight of individuals because of tax reform.
- New York City and Mayor Bill de Blasio are just one recession away from defaulting on its massive debt, and the long dreaded successor to the Great Recession of 2008 is expected to hit bottom in 2020 or 2021. de Blasio’s skyrocketing public spending, worsened by a rising deficit and paltry revenues, has placed New York on the road to an embarrassing bankruptcy.