Round 2 of the regular season for the Democratic presidential nomination kicked off Tuesday. Ten candidates, who were randomly chosen (and better selected than NBC), took the stage this night in Detroit. The other half, including presumptive former Vice President Joe Biden, will do so on Wednesday. Candidates did their best to put some distance between themselves and their rivals, with questions from CNN moderators more designed to generate clicks, views, likes, and retweets than actual substance. A host of issues were addressed, but the theme of this night was fear.
Following the first debates last month, polling for the Democratic presidential contenders coalesced around five main candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg put some distance between themselves and the rest of the two-dozen strong field. Monday was Disclosure Day for the field, and sure enough, Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris came out on top of the money race. Money talks, of course. Not always on its own, but often in echoes. With debate requirements tightening in the fall, the second quarter numbers offer the best picture yet as to who will go the furthest and who might be going home the soonest.
Former Vice President Joe Biden former (D) is down but not out. He needs to find a working message. He is always being attacked and focusing solely on Trump is not working. He has failed to draw big rally crowds or a mass following. He holds the best pathway to the nomination but he is loosing steam even faster than most people believed he would. At the presidential scale, he is a poor candidate but a very likable guy. It appears he hardly ever controls or leads the conversation and often seems to be rambling.
For a while it seemed like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were going to be the two Democrats to duke it out for the party’s presidential nomination, but that may no longer be the case. Senator Kamala Harris has become a major contender for the nomination almost overnight. She was able to go toe to toe with the older and more experienced politicians during the last debate, and most pundits concluded that she won the debate.
In an op ed appearing in the Washington Post on the 4th of July, Republican Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan declared his Independent’s Day. Rep. Amash is the first member of congress to cross the floor in ten years. With primary challengers on the horizon, he is also the latest Trump critic to seemingly jump before being pushed. He might not be the last, as a new Republican establishment takes increasing aim at conservative and moderate mavericks within the party. The result could be a House caucus that is both smaller and more loyal to Donald Trump.
While it would be foolish to extrapolate an entire football season after week one, it can often be revealing as to which teams are moving in which directions. The first debates of the 2019-20 presidential primary season must’ve had quite an effect on the pollsters, donors, activists, and staffs. The playoffs may not start until next year, but there has already been considerable movement in each area— and at least one semi-major candidate is ready to push the panic button.
According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, the leaders for Demoractic Presidential nomination are (first place) former Vice President Joe Biden (D), (second place) Sen. Bernie Sander (D), (third place) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), and (forth place) Sen. Kamala Harris. Three of the top four Democratic candidates are planing on nationalizing our health care system according their latest debate answers.
The advice to “dance like nobody’s watching” has featured prominently on dorm room walls and Etsy merchandise for years. Perhaps the ratings will bear this out, but former Vice President Joe Biden may have wished no one was watching his debate performance Thursday night. In the main event, following Wednesday night’s undercard, Biden looked every one of his 76 years, and then some— even compared to the spry, 76-year old democratic socialist from Vermont. It’s a long way to Iowa and New Hampshire, but Joe has a long way to go.
For someone who speaks so often, and so fondly, of “democratic socialism,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) seems to have no idea what it is. On Wednesday, the two-time independent candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination delivered a “major speech,” entitled “How Democratic Socialism Is the Only Way to Defeat Oligarchy and Authoritarianism.” It was the second time he has attempted to describe this utopian society entirely free from want. And, just as in 2015, he left all but his most dedicated Berners wanting.
Spirituality guru, self-help author, and one-time congressional candidate, Marianne Williamson, qualified for a spot in the first series of Democratic debates on Thursday. A friend of Oprah Winfrey, Williamson’s previous experience in electoral politics was in 2014, when she finished fourth in California’s jungle primary, for the congressional seat currently occupied by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA).
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) announced his run for the presidency on Tuesday. He did so without the endorsement of Montana’s Democratic Senator, Jon Tester, and while struggling to name an accomplishment he was most proud of in his six years as governor. Democrats had hoped he would run against Montana’s other Senator, Steve Daines (R-MT), and are reportedly still pleading with him to change his mind.
Gov. Bullock is now the 22nd candidate to announce a run for the Democratic pennant, with more possibly on the way. Not all of them can be the nominee, and with several potential candidates currently polling at 0%, it’s questionable how many of them really want to be.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) continues to lead all rivals for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. The only other candidate with double digit support is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D), and Biden leads him by 20 points.
Biden also leads in a head-to-head match up with President Donald Trump in the key Electoral College states of Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Biden in North Carolina. The men are tied in Arizona. However, it’s worth remembering that nearly every pollster was wrong about the 2016 presidential outcome.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) launched his candidacy in Pennsylvania, a purple state where President Donald Trump (R) only beat Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by .007 percent, or just over 44,000 votes out of almost 6 million.
Prior to Trump, the last six presidential elections in the keystone state were won by the Democratic ticket. Our guess is that he will soon show up in Michigan where the Trump winning margin was even smaller (only .002 percent). The six Great Lake State elections prior to Trump were also all won by the DNC candidate.
Vice President Joe Biden has taken a 6 point lead and has been able to hold the press attention during his presidential launch this week. Joe Biden now has to establish that he can:
- Establish himself as a top fundraiser for his candidacy. Having polls showing him beating Trump should help.
- Keep the high attention of the left wing press, with no major gaffes.
- Keep the the others in his party from doing too much damage to him, especially the liberal wing, knowing he has a long track record of being a mainstream politician.
- According to “people familiar with the discussions who have been told about them by top aides,” former Vice President Joe Biden will officially announce his candidacy for President on Wednesday. Biden, five years President Trump’s senior, would be the oldest person elected to the presidency, if his third run for the White House is successful.
- President Donald Trump says he will soon sign an executive order requiring colleges and universities to support free speech if they want federal resources. Trump made his remarks to conservatives at the annual CPAC Conference in D.C. this weekend.
- Meanwhile, a man sought for the assault of a conservative activist on the University of California, Berkeley campus last month has been arrested. UC police arrested Zachary Greenberg Friday.
- Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz: “Meanwhile, far-left activists succeeded in forcing Amazon to abandon plans to create a second headquarters in the New York City area, which would have brought 25,000 jobs and injected billions of dollars into the local economy. Where has common sense gone?“