Wednesday’s debate was, aside from discussions on free college for undocumented immigrants, and whether to throw Donald Trump in jail or beat him first, a debate on a single subject: Joe Biden’s fitness as the Democratic nominee. There had been tremendous doubts following his first round face-plant in June. This time, Joe came ready. While he didn’t throw a perfect game, he did more than enough to get the win. The combative, belligerent Uncle Joe, who shredded both Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan before, returned on Wednesday night, after seven years of hibernation. And he had jokes.
Following the first debates last month, polling for the Democratic presidential contenders coalesced around five main candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg put some distance between themselves and the rest of the two-dozen strong field. Monday was Disclosure Day for the field, and sure enough, Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris came out on top of the money race. Money talks, of course. Not always on its own, but often in echoes. With debate requirements tightening in the fall, the second quarter numbers offer the best picture yet as to who will go the furthest and who might be going home the soonest.
The big prize for Democrats is California and many people thought Sen. Kamala Harris would be favored, especially after her strong debate performance. If not Harris, than possibly former Vice President Joe Biden or even Sen. Bernie Sanders who had good showing in the 2016 primary election, in the State of California. However, the latest poll had Sen. Elizabeth Warren in first place, Harris in second by only a very thin margin, with Biden now down to third. If Harris can’t secure her home state in the Primary, her chances of success are thin.
Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) shocked the political establishment when she was elected to the House of Representatives without any major political experience to speak of. Since her election Ocasio-Cortez has championed some of the most liberal and progressive policies ever to be discussed in the halls of the U.S. Congress.
Former Vice President Joe Biden former (D) is down but not out. He needs to find a working message. He is always being attacked and focusing solely on Trump is not working. He has failed to draw big rally crowds or a mass following. He holds the best pathway to the nomination but he is loosing steam even faster than most people believed he would. At the presidential scale, he is a poor candidate but a very likable guy. It appears he hardly ever controls or leads the conversation and often seems to be rambling.
For a while it seemed like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were going to be the two Democrats to duke it out for the party’s presidential nomination, but that may no longer be the case. Senator Kamala Harris has become a major contender for the nomination almost overnight. She was able to go toe to toe with the older and more experienced politicians during the last debate, and most pundits concluded that she won the debate.
While it would be foolish to extrapolate an entire football season after week one, it can often be revealing as to which teams are moving in which directions. The first debates of the 2019-20 presidential primary season must’ve had quite an effect on the pollsters, donors, activists, and staffs. The playoffs may not start until next year, but there has already been considerable movement in each area— and at least one semi-major candidate is ready to push the panic button.
The advice to “dance like nobody’s watching” has featured prominently on dorm room walls and Etsy merchandise for years. Perhaps the ratings will bear this out, but former Vice President Joe Biden may have wished no one was watching his debate performance Thursday night. In the main event, following Wednesday night’s undercard, Biden looked every one of his 76 years, and then some— even compared to the spry, 76-year old democratic socialist from Vermont. It’s a long way to Iowa and New Hampshire, but Joe has a long way to go.
It was derided as the kids’ table debate, and it’s safe to say Wednesday night’s opening act lived down to the hype. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and nine challengers in single digits took the stage in Miami for NBC’s first Democratic debate of the 2019-20 presidential campaign. Emphasizing their similarities, few stood out positively from the field. The first group of ten (with ten more coming Thursday night) debated health care, immigration, foreign policy, and how to run against an unpopular president when things are going well.
Just when you thought the field couldn’t get any bigger, the Democratic presidential race was joined, again. On Sunday, former Pennsylvania Congressman, and three-star admiral, Joe Sestak, threw his cover into an ever-expanding ring. He is the twenty-fifth major candidate to do so. While Sestak’s relatively late entry into the race may not pose much of a threat to the presumptive frontrunner, Joe Biden, it may signify that certain Democrats think he’s already in trouble.
On polls, former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has about a 20 point lead over Sen Elizabeth Warren (D). Remember polls are not very accurate if the people being polled don’t trust the poll takers. With that said Biden has the clear advantage. Studies say that if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief or to what they are personally representing, they will not be completed forthright.
Polls – Biden
In the most recent RealClearPolitics poll, former Vice president Joe Biden (D) has an average 8.1 lead over current President Donald Trump (R) over the last month and we have seen very little change. Remember if the poll recipient believes there is evidence of a biases or polarity to their own personal belief they will not be completed forthright. It still is a very good indicator especially for the direction of a a campaign.
With Biden’s poll numbers coming down, you may be wondering what is hurting him and what is helping.
The Good News
Former Vice President Joe Biden has the best political lane to maintain his lead as the frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s nomination. In marketing we call this a niche. He has the conservative and more moderate Democrats. That might not produce as much Twitter activity or create as much internet buzz, but it does mean he holds the greatest number of votes.
Spirituality guru, self-help author, and one-time congressional candidate, Marianne Williamson, qualified for a spot in the first series of Democratic debates on Thursday. A friend of Oprah Winfrey, Williamson’s previous experience in electoral politics was in 2014, when she finished fourth in California’s jungle primary, for the congressional seat currently occupied by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA).
Can anyone find Howard Schultz ?
President Donald Trump (R) is a billionaire who ran, won the Republican nomination and became president without any political experience. This gave a lot of other egocentric billionaires the idea that they could become president too:
- Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, running as an Independent.
- Former Independent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as a Democrat.
- Hedge Fund manager, environmental activist and Democrat Tom Steyer.
With many states enacting new abortion laws (New York more pro-abortion, Alabama more anti-abortion), everyone is trying to position themselves for an overturn of Roe v. Wade. This is becoming a very hot topic as many believe if Trump appoints another conservative Supreme Court Justice (for example Ruth B. Ginsburg age (86) or Stephen Breyer age (80) could resign), The Court would change to a 6-3 conservative majority and might curtail or even overturn the landmark 1973 abortion rights ruling.
Presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is on top of the world right now. The polling world.
The question is can he hold his top position for 16 months? The hard negative campaigning against him hasn’t really started yet. According to Gallup (May 15th), 53 percent of the public has a favorable opinion of Biden, compared to only 35 percent with a negative opinion. That’s an 18 point favorability spread. President Donald Trump currently has a 42.1 favorable rating and 53.4 unfavorable rating giving him an 11.3 point negative rating.
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) announced his run for the presidency on Tuesday. He did so without the endorsement of Montana’s Democratic Senator, Jon Tester, and while struggling to name an accomplishment he was most proud of in his six years as governor. Democrats had hoped he would run against Montana’s other Senator, Steve Daines (R-MT), and are reportedly still pleading with him to change his mind.
Gov. Bullock is now the 22nd candidate to announce a run for the Democratic pennant, with more possibly on the way. Not all of them can be the nominee, and with several potential candidates currently polling at 0%, it’s questionable how many of them really want to be.
The US Southern Border with Mexico has seen 531,478 apprehension from October to April 2019, compared to 288,612 during the same time period in 2018–that’s an 84% increase.
There were 109,144 migrants encountered in April at the Southern Border, the highest since 2007, or 12 years. Using nominal seasonal normality Princeton Policy Advisors predicts that 2019 Southern Apprehensions will double from 2018, and reach the highest level since 2006.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) continues to lead all rivals for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. The only other candidate with double digit support is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D), and Biden leads him by 20 points.
Biden also leads in a head-to-head match up with President Donald Trump in the key Electoral College states of Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Biden in North Carolina. The men are tied in Arizona. However, it’s worth remembering that nearly every pollster was wrong about the 2016 presidential outcome.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) launched his candidacy in Pennsylvania, a purple state where President Donald Trump (R) only beat Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by .007 percent, or just over 44,000 votes out of almost 6 million.
Prior to Trump, the last six presidential elections in the keystone state were won by the Democratic ticket. Our guess is that he will soon show up in Michigan where the Trump winning margin was even smaller (only .002 percent). The six Great Lake State elections prior to Trump were also all won by the DNC candidate.
Vice President Joe Biden has taken a 6 point lead and has been able to hold the press attention during his presidential launch this week. Joe Biden now has to establish that he can:
- Establish himself as a top fundraiser for his candidacy. Having polls showing him beating Trump should help.
- Keep the high attention of the left wing press, with no major gaffes.
- Keep the the others in his party from doing too much damage to him, especially the liberal wing, knowing he has a long track record of being a mainstream politician.
- Former Vice President Joe Biden officially announced his entry in to the 2020 presidential race, with a YouTube video Thursday morning. “Everything that has made America America is at stake,” Biden said. “We have to remember who we are. This is America.”
- According to “people familiar with the discussions who have been told about them by top aides,” former Vice President Joe Biden will officially announce his candidacy for President on Wednesday. Biden, five years President Trump’s senior, would be the oldest person elected to the presidency, if his third run for the White House is successful.
- Several 2020 presidential candidates, including Republicans Bill Weld and John Kasich, gathered in Austin this weekend for the 33rd SXSW conference. What began as a local music conference and festival has morphed into one of the biggest and most-influential gatherings anywhere, leading some to believe that Austin is the new Iowa.