Wednesday’s debate was, aside from discussions on free college for undocumented immigrants, and whether to throw Donald Trump in jail or beat him first, a debate on a single subject: Joe Biden’s fitness as the Democratic nominee. There had been tremendous doubts following his first round face-plant in June. This time, Joe came ready. While he didn’t throw a perfect game, he did more than enough to get the win. The combative, belligerent Uncle Joe, who shredded both Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan before, returned on Wednesday night, after seven years of hibernation. And he had jokes.
Following the first debates last month, polling for the Democratic presidential contenders coalesced around five main candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg put some distance between themselves and the rest of the two-dozen strong field. Monday was Disclosure Day for the field, and sure enough, Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris came out on top of the money race. Money talks, of course. Not always on its own, but often in echoes. With debate requirements tightening in the fall, the second quarter numbers offer the best picture yet as to who will go the furthest and who might be going home the soonest.
The big prize for Democrats is California and many people thought Sen. Kamala Harris would be favored, especially after her strong debate performance. If not Harris, than possibly former Vice President Joe Biden or even Sen. Bernie Sanders who had good showing in the 2016 primary election, in the State of California. However, the latest poll had Sen. Elizabeth Warren in first place, Harris in second by only a very thin margin, with Biden now down to third. If Harris can’t secure her home state in the Primary, her chances of success are thin.
Former Vice President Joe Biden former (D) is down but not out. He needs to find a working message. He is always being attacked and focusing solely on Trump is not working. He has failed to draw big rally crowds or a mass following. He holds the best pathway to the nomination but he is loosing steam even faster than most people believed he would. At the presidential scale, he is a poor candidate but a very likable guy. It appears he hardly ever controls or leads the conversation and often seems to be rambling.
For a while it seemed like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were going to be the two Democrats to duke it out for the party’s presidential nomination, but that may no longer be the case. Senator Kamala Harris has become a major contender for the nomination almost overnight. She was able to go toe to toe with the older and more experienced politicians during the last debate, and most pundits concluded that she won the debate.
While it would be foolish to extrapolate an entire football season after week one, it can often be revealing as to which teams are moving in which directions. The first debates of the 2019-20 presidential primary season must’ve had quite an effect on the pollsters, donors, activists, and staffs. The playoffs may not start until next year, but there has already been considerable movement in each area— and at least one semi-major candidate is ready to push the panic button.
According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, the leaders for Demoractic Presidential nomination are (first place) former Vice President Joe Biden (D), (second place) Sen. Bernie Sander (D), (third place) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), and (forth place) Sen. Kamala Harris. Three of the top four Democratic candidates are planing on nationalizing our health care system according their latest debate answers.
The advice to “dance like nobody’s watching” has featured prominently on dorm room walls and Etsy merchandise for years. Perhaps the ratings will bear this out, but former Vice President Joe Biden may have wished no one was watching his debate performance Thursday night. In the main event, following Wednesday night’s undercard, Biden looked every one of his 76 years, and then some— even compared to the spry, 76-year old democratic socialist from Vermont. It’s a long way to Iowa and New Hampshire, but Joe has a long way to go.
A gaggle of presidential hopefuls gathered in suddenly-relevant California this weekend for their first big audition. The better-than-bakers’ dozen served as headliners in San Francisco for the California Democratic Party’s state convention. A crowd of 5,000 delegates heard the pitches and policies, and may be the best look yet at what the national party’s base of activists and partisan primary voters are looking for from their presidential standard-bearer next year.
Spirituality guru, self-help author, and one-time congressional candidate, Marianne Williamson, qualified for a spot in the first series of Democratic debates on Thursday. A friend of Oprah Winfrey, Williamson’s previous experience in electoral politics was in 2014, when she finished fourth in California’s jungle primary, for the congressional seat currently occupied by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA).
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) announced his run for the presidency on Tuesday. He did so without the endorsement of Montana’s Democratic Senator, Jon Tester, and while struggling to name an accomplishment he was most proud of in his six years as governor. Democrats had hoped he would run against Montana’s other Senator, Steve Daines (R-MT), and are reportedly still pleading with him to change his mind.
Gov. Bullock is now the 22nd candidate to announce a run for the Democratic pennant, with more possibly on the way. Not all of them can be the nominee, and with several potential candidates currently polling at 0%, it’s questionable how many of them really want to be.
Vice President Joe Biden (D) continues to lead all rivals for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. The only other candidate with double digit support is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D), and Biden leads him by 20 points.
Biden also leads in a head-to-head match up with President Donald Trump in the key Electoral College states of Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Biden in North Carolina. The men are tied in Arizona. However, it’s worth remembering that nearly every pollster was wrong about the 2016 presidential outcome.
Vice President Joe Biden has taken a 6 point lead and has been able to hold the press attention during his presidential launch this week. Joe Biden now has to establish that he can:
- Establish himself as a top fundraiser for his candidacy. Having polls showing him beating Trump should help.
- Keep the high attention of the left wing press, with no major gaffes.
- Keep the the others in his party from doing too much damage to him, especially the liberal wing, knowing he has a long track record of being a mainstream politician.
- The latest polling and forecasts indicate that Donald Trump and the Republicans could hold onto both houses, although the House of Representatives looks the more likely to fall to the Democrats.
- California Senator Kamala Harris’ trip to Iowa represented a breakthrough — signaling the 2020 contest to challenge President Donald Trump had moved into an important and more urgent phase for what is expected to be a large and wide open Democratic field.
- If Democrats regain a House majority, expect them to forge ahead with more probes into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and potential collusion with the Trump campaign. Democrats who want an impeachment have urged the party to investigate Trump and build a case before attempting to remove him from office.
- Minnesota Republican candidates are looking to spoil Democrats’ hope for a “blue wave” in November. A new poll shows that a Republican is now leading the race for state attorney general, an office which the Democrats have held since 1971.
- Thousands more Texas voters have participated in the first day of early voting for the 2018 midterm elections on Monday than they did in the 2014 contest. A total of 37 states and the District of Columbia permit early voting. The midterm elections will be held on Nov. 6.