On Thursday, international oil prices bottomed out and rebounded, benefiting from OPEC+’s possible slowdown in production increase. However,the renewed surge in new coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States, the blockage of negotiations on the US stimulus plan, and the increase in US gasoline inventories all indicate a worsening outlook for fuel demand.
Crude oil inventory data fell for two consecutive weeks. Crude oil ended its three-day downward trend, and closed higher, the highest close in nearly seven weeks. Meanwhile, the pending US economic stimulus package is expected to boost energy demand. Everyone, including the energy industry, is awaiting word on a deal.
During the trading session on Monday, the euro retreated to the 1.17 mark against the US dollar. Previously, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB currently has not exhausted all available policy tools and options, and can still come up with more if necessary in the future.
International oil prices fell on Monday due to China’s economic growth rate in the third quarter, which was lower than expected. China’s energy demand is still inevitably dragged down by the renewed surge in the number of new coronavirus infections in other countries around the world.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are currently more than 7.2 million cases of new coronavirus across Europe, and the number of hospitalizations is increasing at an alarming rate. European stock markets fell across the board.There were more than 30,000 new confirmed cases in France in a single day on Thursday.
On Friday, US crude oil continued overnight decline, refresh more than a two-week low at $37.29. The cloth oil fell below the $40 mark, news sources confirmed, triggering fears of the market for the spread of the epidemic. The United States Crude oil is currently reported at $37.40, a decrease of 3.46%.
According to Reuters, due to concerns about the slow recovery of oil demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have put pressure on oil-producing countries whose output exceeds their target, requiring them to further reduce production in August-September.
According to The Korea Times, the South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to the country today to express his country’s dissatisfaction with the statements of the officials of the Islamic Republic regarding the blocked Iranian oil revenues in the country.
Donald Trump’s administration has instructed prosecutors to file a lawsuit to seize four Iranian tankers carrying gasoline to Venezuela, according to Reuters. The lawsuit aims to seize Iranian tankers, prevent future deliveries of gasoline to Venezuela, and increase sanctions and economic pressure on both.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described the construction of the Goreh-Jask pipeline as one of the projects of the Ministry of Petroleum in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Markazi, and Hormozgan. According to the news sources, Rouhani made remarks at a ceremony, which took place on Thursday.
Iran is allegedly rebranding oil exports destined for China and other major oil import nations. This is according to a new report published by Radio Farda. The embattled state, which is reeling from US sanctions, has been able to export over nine million barrels of oil by rebranding consignments in Malaysia to make it seem like the cargo originated from there.
Chinese oil companies have stopped chartering oil tankers that have, in the past year, delivered consignments to Venezuela. This is following a new directive by the United States government sanctioning vessels involved in boosting the Venezuela oil sector. According to the Department of the Treasury, companies aiding the corrupt regime of President Nicholas Maduro are in contravention of current statutes.
The Global Gas Sensors Market is enduring an exacting period with its robust growth coming to an abrupt halt in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rise in the valuation of the gas sensor market can be from 1.1 Billion 2019 to $1.8 Billion in 2025. The availability of a wide range of Gas sensors to detect a range of gases, such as combustible gases, a toxic gases, and flammable can impel the expansion of the market.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has sternly warned the United States and threatened retaliatory action against Washington should it dare cause any hitches to the transportation of Iranian oil tankers to Venezuela. Rouhani says Iran would never start a conflict but has the legitimate right to defend its national interests, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
The Iranian army is escorting tankers to Venezuela to deliver oil. Earlier, the United States said it could block the tanker from reaching Venezuela. The five tankers are expected to reach Venezuela soon. Venezuela’s Defense Minister noted that oil tankers will stop at the port in the special economic zone.
An Iranian media network that is aligned to the reigning regime has issued a warning to the United States government against carrying out any moves that would jeopardize its oil shipment to Venezuela. The ship that is destined for the Latin American nation has already left the port.
US President Donald Trump allegedly gave the Saudi administration an ultimatum to stop the infamous price war with Russia. On April 2, Trump apparently made a phone call to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), letting him know that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production, he would allow lawmakers to go ahead and legislate a US troop withdrawal from the kingdom.
Under the new Saudi- Russo oil deal, Saudi Arabia and Russia lead the record for oil cuts as part of the agreement committed by 23 countries to withhold 9.7 million barrels a day from markets. Western publications, including The New Yorker, ran articles this week with headlines such as “How the Russian-Saudi Oil War Went Awry—for Putin Most of All.”
With declining oil demand following the Coronavirus Crisis, major oil-producing countries have reached a historic agreement to cut production by 10 million barrels per day. The move is a small step in easing concerns about falling oil prices. It also marks the improvement of relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, two powerful OPEC Plus blocs.
The US Department of Energy is urging the administration of US President Donald Trump to form an alliance with Saudi Arabia in an attempt to regulate world oil prices, which could lead to Saudi Arabia withdrawing from OPEC. This information became available via The Wall Street Journal which claims that supporters of the US oil Alliance with Saudi Arabia are calling for stabilizing energy prices and preventing their collapse, which occurred after the OPEC talks in Vienna in early March.
This week, one of the main topics around the world is the so called “oil war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia. A myriad of publications are claiming the Russian economy will tank during this oil price war. According to the various economic models, the Russian economical crises is supposed to reach its peak in 2025. That is another reason, beside Putin’s personal aspirations, why he wants to remain in control of Russia. At that point, it could be possible for the West to weaken Russia.
Indian company Reliance Industries owner and leading industrialist Mukesh Ambani was the richest man in Asia until yesterday, but what happened in one day that this crown disappeared from him? On Monday, Asia’s most common market share saw a sharp fall, and oil prices dropped significantly.
In order to complete Nord Stream 2, Russia decided to have the Gazprom vessels accompanied by Russian warships. The route is from the Indian ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. Nord stream 2 is a new export gas pipeline from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea. The combined capacity of each of the two Nord streams lines is expected to be 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Thus, the total design capacity of Nord stream and Nord stream-2 is 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
The killing of General Qassem Soleimani by the United States escalated its conflict with Iran to crisis level. Of course, U.S. President Donald Trump has, on numerous occasions, openly declared that his main objective is to put maximum pressure on Iran so as to force it to redact its nuclear program ambitions.
OPEC is considering extending its oil production cuts until the end of the year, as the markets are still looking downward, but discussions remain at an early stage. Russia’s TASS news agency quoted a source within the organization on Friday. The source said the group, which includes two oil exporters, was due to meet in March, but it might also meet in June to decide on the policy.
Russia’s head of the Minenergo, Alexander Novak, recently stated the nation’s interest is to gradually severe ties with OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries comprised of 14 nations. Founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members, OPEC moved its headquartered in 1965 to Vienna, Austria. The countries that joined later were:
Iraqi dеmоnѕtrаtоrѕ соntіnuеd on Wеdnеѕdау tо сut оff аll rоаdѕ leading to оіl fіеldѕ аnd sites in Zubair district, west of Bаѕrа city, іn рrоtеѕt against the dеtеrіоrаtіоn оf the есоnоmіс ѕіtuаtіоn in the country dеѕріtе іtѕ hugе oil rеѕоurсеѕ. According tо nеwѕ sources,” thе dеmоnѕtrаtоrѕ рrеvеntеd еmрlоуееѕ frоm ассеѕѕ tо оіl ѕіtеѕ, whоѕе еxроrtѕ ассоunt fоr 70 реrсеnt оf Iraq’s oil.
Sаudі Arаmсо hаѕ аnnоunсеd аn initial рublіс оffеrіng (IPO), wіth a рrісе rаngе of SAR 30-32 реr ѕhаrе ($8 to $8.50), giving рrіоrіtу to Sаudі іnvеѕtоrѕ. Aссоrdіng tо thе рrісе range, the vаluе оf thе wоrld’ѕ most рrоfіtаblе соmраnу rаngеd frоm $1.6 tо $1.7 trіllіоn. The соmраnу wіll аnnоunсе the final ѕhаrе price оn Dесеmbеr 5.
Thе Sudаnеѕе Cаbіnеt іѕ mоvіng tо rеduсе ѕреndіng on the ѕесurіtу ѕеrvісеѕ and аuthоrіzеѕ the gеnеrаl budget fоr 2020 to fосuѕ оn thе еduсаtіоn and hеаlth ѕесtоrѕ. Thе sources ѕаіd that the vіѕіоn оf the trаnѕіtіоnаl gоvеrnmеnt is tо асhіеvе a соmрrеhеnѕіvе peace іn thе соuntrу, whісh rеԛuіrеѕ rеduсіng spending оn ѕесurіtу ѕеrvісеѕ. The ѕроkеѕmаn of the Sudanese gоvеrnmеnt Faisal Saleh, іn рrеѕѕ ѕtаtеmеntѕ, ѕаіd thаt the Council of Mіnіѕtеrѕ аррrоvеd thе general guidelines fоr thе budgеt fоr 2020, focusing оn thе еduсаtіоn аnd hеаlth ѕесtоrѕ.
Irаn has аnnоunсеd thе dіѕсоvеrу оf a lаrgе oil fіеld, with rеѕеrvеѕ of 53 billion bаrrеlѕ of crude oil. The nеwѕ оf the dіѕсоvеrу оf thе оіl fіеld іn thе іntеrnаtіоnаl mеdіа hаѕ also been widely reflected. Hаѕѕаn Rоuhаnі announced the discovery Sunday on state television. However, Iran fасеѕ rеѕtrісtіоnѕ оn thе ѕuррlу аnd sale оf оіl duе to ѕеvеrе oil sanctions. In аddіtіоn, the еxtrасtіоn and ореrаtіоn of this lаrgе oilfield require ѕресіаlіzеd capital and knоwlеdgе, including foreign capital аnd tесhnоlоgу.
This week, Durig looks at an energy company that is making the transition from its historical focus on natural gas to be more focused on oil production. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) has been making strides this year to transition towards a more oil focused production portfolio. Chesapeake has already increased oil in its production portfolio from 17% in 2018, to 24% as of the end of the second quarter. The company estimates it will exit 2019 with oil representing 26% of its production. Oil is a higher margin product, so Chesapeake is already seeing the fruit of its decision (see bullet points above).
An Iranian tanker was hit on Friday in the Red Sea by two blasts, both of them, according to Iranian state media, caused by missiles. The incident took place off the coast of Saudi Arabia and soon raised fears of escalating tension between the two countries in the unstable region. The missile attack could not yet be independently confirmed, but the location of the Red Sea would be unusual— most hostilities involving Iran occur in the Persian Gulf.
Venezuela denied responsibility on Thursday for oil spills that polluted more than 130 Brazilian beaches. In the community, Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA said Brazil’s accusations about the origin of the oil are unfounded. “PDVSA categorically rejects statements by Brazil’s Environment Minister Ricardo Salles, who accuses Venezuela of being responsible for crude oil that has contaminated the beaches of northeastern Brazil since early September,” the state-owned company said.
The US has announced plans to send forces to Saudi Arabia in the wake of attacks against the country’s oil infrastructure. Historically, before a war there is a provocation. However, looking at the attack trajectory, there are a few odd details in the scenario.
The Saudi monarchy experienced attacks against their oil production facilities in the last week. Tensions in the Middle East escalated following the drone attacks on the two largest oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attacks.
The global economic impact will be felt, since Saudi Arabia lost more than half of their crude output via the attacks. The nation is the number one oil producer in the world, holds 5% of the global oil supply, and cut output by 5.7 million barrels per day. last year, Aramco’s net income was $111.1 billion.
Oil prices rose at the beginning of this week, on the back of the attack on Saudi Aramco facilities. Brent crude futures reached $71.95 a barrel, the largest percentage gain since the start of the Gulf War in 1991. Saturday’s attacks stopped production equivalent to 5% of global oil supplies.
This week, Durig Capital takes a look at a company that provides compression services and equipment for the oil and gas industry. With the demand increasing for takeaway capacity from oil and gas fields around the country, CSI Compressco’s services become even more valuable and essential. The company had a fantastic second quarter, with record setting utilization, increased revenues and adjusted EBITDA.
Second quarter overall utilization came in at a record setting 89.1%.
Revenues increased by 36% over second quarter 2018.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 22% over first quarter and 41% year-over-year.
Outstanding interest coverage of 2.2x.
The majority of all global conflicts are connected to oil. The map below provides the current oil resources available globally. The power of the Black Gold and greed has been overriding human lives for close to 100 years. The first large scale demand for petroleum was documented in the 1880s due to kerosene been derived from petroleum.
A month ago, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down an unmanned American drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Later that week, President Trump called off a retaliatory military attack on Iran at the last minute. He explained the next day that he did not believe the loss of Iranian lives to be proportionate to the loss of a machine. On Thursday, the United States appeared to level the score. US Marines jammed an unmanned Iranian drone in the Strait, downing the aircraft and destroying it. The incident reignited tensions between the two countries, which seem to be stumbling toward war.
In a scene reminiscent of Oregon— or Moldova— two separate sides gathered in two separate locations to convene two separate special sessions of the legislature, ostensibly to find two separate solutions to Alaska’s mounting budget crisis. With 38 senators and representatives gathered in the state capital, Juneau, and 22 in Wasilla, the hometown of Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy, an attempt to override some $440 million in spending cuts appeared to fail Wednesday. A three-fourths vote by a joint session (one would assume, held in the same place) will be needed by Friday, or Gov. Dunleavy’s line-item vetos will stand.
If oil demand is down so much due to the China trade war and tariffs, how come the more economically sensitive materials, such as copper, have not felt the same economic downward price effects?
Today China has asked it’s refineries to hold off on placing new orders for crude oil imports in anticipation of lower prices once and if demand stalls further. The Chinese buyers have cut off purchases of U.S. crude oil as the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington continues.
- Interest Rates: The 10-year Treasury is hitting around 2.08%, down from 3.25% just three months ago.
- Oil is down around $53 per barrel. Down from about $65 in April.
- Industrial Production has hit multi-year lows.
- Gold and the dollar are moving up.
These four indicators have many forecasting both a tougher time ahead and a rotation into safe havens. The central focus of concern is the trade wars with China and the new tariffs with Mexico.
- A popular measure of the strength of the U.S. dollar is inching toward its highest level in almost two years, having carved out gains in the past two months. As the greenback marches higher, analysts who predicted its rise in the first quarter, have turned more bearish on bucks, making the case that “the top is in” for the U.S. dollar.
- Trump aims to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero by ending sanctions exemptions that it previously granted to some of the Islamic Republic’s biggest customers.
- Saudi Arabia is ready to start pumping more oil if the United States indeed ends the sanction waivers they granted eight Iranian oil importers last November, citing a source that remained unnamed, but Riyadh will not rush into a reversal of the cuts. It will first examine the effect of the sanction waiver cancellation before it decides how to respond to it.