- It is expected that amendments will pass, since they are designed to be very difficult for an average Russian citizen to understand.
- The next presidential election in Russia is in 2024.
- It is highly likely Putin will run in 2024, since the term limits are expected to be removed after July 1st.
The vote on the Russian constitutional amendments will be on July 1st, 2020. In January of this year, Russian president Vladimir Putin proposed amendments to the Russian constitution. One of the proposed amendments will remove the term limits for the president.
It is expected that amendments will pass, since they are designed to be very difficult for an average Russian citizen to understand which option (1 or 2) they are actually voting for.
Moreover, Russian nationals who understand laws are not even clear of all the amendments. It is clear, there are changes about the power redistribution and functions of the government bodies.
Hence, it is plausible to believe that the recent wave of the “suicides” of the oligarchs is not coincidental. The most recent one was this weekend in Moscow. Dmitry Popov was shot under an odd set of circumstances. He died four hours later in the hospital. He is a former head of one of the Russian government agencies.
Nevertheless, it is highly likely Putin will be running in the 2024 Russian presidential election.
What would it mean, if Putin is a candidate in the 2024 election?
- First and foremost, Putin will continue his course in the geopolitical arena.
- Russian foreign policy will change by the end of summer, and will continue to evolve past 2024.
- The economic recovery plan that was presented by the Russian Prime Minister goes well beyond 2024.
- It is expected with the Article 67 and amendments, Russia will add Donbas and Luhansk region to its territories.
- Expansion of the Russian military and further development of he AI applications in the field.
To note, the AI part, Putin’s daughter is in charge of the project, as far as integration with the defense sector. She holds a PhD from Moscow State University.
Additionally, Putin proposed two new directions:
- The restoration of statehood in the early ’00s and the economic development of the country (doubling of GDP and national projects).
- The restoration of Russia’s role in the world and the country’s security. Russia continues to advance its agenda in the Middle East and stepped up its geopolitical goals in Libya, including the recent recruitment of the mercenaries, indirectly through Wagner.
What will happen if Putin doesn’t run in 2024?
It is plausible that Putin’s new puppet will be chosen, and he will run the whole show from behind the scenes, or again be Prime Minister. However, the last time it occurred due to the Russian constitution not allowing Putin to run again for President consecutively. This time around there is no need for such.
Overall, it is possible to create a management system that is adapted to the challenges and does not depend on the Manager’s personality. In order to form a system of governance of Russia after Putin, and without Putin, and test it. The only question is when exactly: in 2024, or beyond?
It is still expected that Putin, in fact, will run in 2024, and will continue being in power, until he is incapable, due to age. He will choose his successor one day. Lastly, it probably won’t be sooner than 2030, and possibly beyond.