The Status Quo in Nagorno-Karabakh

  • Russian peacekeepers are on the Armenian side.
  • The Armenian refugees are returning back to the region.
  • Erdogan will continue efforts to further his geopolitical agenda.

A Russian peacekeeping contingent has been stationed in the “Armenian” part of Nagorno-Karabakh after a ceasefire agreement was signed by Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The agreement came into force on the November 10th. Currently, the Russian peacekeeping units carry out a number of duties.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but mostly governed by the Republic of Artsakh (formerly named Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority established on the basis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.

These responsibilities include engineering reconnaissance, mine clearance of roads and equipment, and removal of burnt equipment from public roads in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

In Stepanakert, traffic management, electricity and water supply to social facilities of civil infrastructure and residential buildings have been restored, and an interdepartmental humanitarian center has been deployed.

The peacekeepers are also involved in the refugee return scenario. Russia plans to establish a mobile hospital in the region. Furthermore, Russia deployed Orlan-10 complex and Leer-3 Electronic warfare systems.

The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is planning to send the Turkish military personnel to Azerbaijan. It should be noted that Turkish generals participated in the organization of the Azerbaijan offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Additionally, there was information leaked that after the removal of the Azerbaijani Chief of Staff, his functions were given to the Turkish General Bahtiyar Ersay.

Moreover, in 2021, it is plausible that NATO could put one of their member’s forces (Turkey is still part of NATO) in Shusha. It is also possible that a Nagorno-Karabakh Army could be created. Hence, Russian peacekeepers could be asked to leave the area before their five year term is up.

That said, there are three types of states:

  1. The Global Super Corporation (European Union, etc.)
  2. Multiethnic countries allowing large numbers of immigrants (Canada, U.S., etc.)
  3. Nations based on ethnic origin (Ukraine, etc.)
Nikol Vovayi Pashinyan is an Armenian politician serving as Prime Minister of Armenia since 8 May 2018. A prominent journalist and editor, Pashinyan first founded his own newspaper in 1998 which was shut down a year later.

In regard to the first type, the EU held the talks on November 19, which included the crisis in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The third type is characterized by small growth due to the limitations on the number of citizens. This is the scenario in the Nagorno-Karabakh. It is a conflict based on the ethnic claims in the region.

Recently, there have been reports that the Armenian-speaking segment has seen a surge in activity of fake accounts being created on social media. These fake accounts spread misinformation and appear to be targeting Armenian-speaking users.

According to the IP trace, a majority of the fake accounts were registered from Turkey. The spike was observed on Facebook, Youtube, and ArmFriend.

Additionally, there have been reports of the mass jailing of the Armenian opposition, and high numbers of indictments. Some are starting to compare the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, to a mini version of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.

Overall, it is clear the conflict is not done in the Nagarno-Karabakh region. It is frozen for now, but Erdogan will continue his antics. However, it can all change after Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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