The US and Iran in Geopolitics

  • Trump has been hostile towards Iran.
  • The changing of the guard in the White House will be the end of Trump's policy of the Iran isolation.
  • Iran is concerned with the Syrian militants in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Last week, US President Donald Trump asked his advisers about the possibilities of striking Iranian nuclear facilities.  The Wall Street Journal published the information regarding Iran expanding its supply of low-enriched uranium. Trump has been hostile towards Iran since he took office.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but mostly governed by the Republic of Artsakh (formerly named Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority established on the basis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.

Trump also reversed the historic nuclear deal brokered by President Obama. However, the new President-Elect, Joe Biden, will have a different vision. Nevertheless, President Trump still have two months left as the US President, and he could lead the US towards a new, very dangerous war before leaving office.

Moreover, the changing of the guard in the White House will be the end of Trump’s policy of Iranian isolation. However, not all parties agree with this outcome. At least the development of the situation shows that there are significant risks in terms of aggravation of the situation.

Additionally, there has been a large-scale redeployment of forces and assets of the Iranian army in the border area with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yes, there was a military conflict nearby, and the fighting was very active.

At present, a ceasefire agreement has been reached pertaining to the Nagorno-Karabakh region and has been signed by Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Currently, it is obvious to Iran that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan currently pose any danger to Tehran. Rather, these states should be wary of Iranian anger.

Iran is concerned with the Syrian militants in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Turkey sent to Azerbaijan to participate in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. The Russian Foreign Ministry was the first to break the news pertaining to the Syrian fighters entering the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

It should be noted that the Sunni fighters from Syria who fought against the Alawites and Shiite volunteers in the Aleppo area despise Iran. The tension with Iran will also cause Israel to react. At one point and time, Iran and Israel had good relations. That all changed in 1979, after the Iranian Revolution.

There are no diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, largely due to the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Due to the two wars waged by the countries in the past century—one from 1918 to 1921 and another from 1988 to 1994—the two have had strained relations.

This month, there has been a lot of news in relation to Iran. A recent story was the elimination of one of the leaders of al-Qaeda on the territory of Iran. Sunni al-Qaeda can’t work with Iran. However, the US administration has differing views.

Earlier this month, there was a clash on the Iranian border with an unnamed country, during which three Iranian border guards were killed. This is important information. Thereafter, it would mean there is a possibility of an attack on Iran. This is a very dangerous trajectory and could lead to a very dangerous conflict in the Middle East.

Overall, 2021 is going to be an interesting year. Nevertheless, the Coronavirus continues to be rampant, and the US can’t afford to go into another war. The formation of a new arrangement can occur within a year.

Next year, there will be an election in Germany, and consecutively, the following year, an election in France. This could bring a lot of changes in the geopolitical arena. It is imperative to focus on the Middle East.

There could be a change in the region, which could bring more turmoil. The US will have a challenge next year in the diplomatic relations.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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