Turkey, NATO, and Opportunities

  • Iran, Turkey, Russia and North Korea are considered as the "Rogue" States by the Atlantic Council.
  • Turkey disagrees with the findings.
  • Turkey will have tough year ahead.

The Atlantic Council released its list of risks for 2021. According to the list, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and North Korea are considered as “Rogue” States. Thus far, Turkey purchased Russian anti-missile systems and threatened Greece. In addition, Turkey continues to meddle into Libya, Syria, and the Mediterranean.

The Turkish government responded to this statement as follows:

“Equating Turkey, which has been an ally of the United States for almost 70 years, with ‘rogue states’ is the most obvious indicator that Washington can neglect any state that does not obey its interests, regardless of friendship, travel and so on. This situation points to a new crisis in Turkish-American relations, the source of which is the United States, which is creating an artificial crisis and trying to teach Turkey a lesson through military or economic coups, to suppress its rebellion.”

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a Turkish politician serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey. He previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014 and as Mayor of Istanbul from 1994.

The Turkish publications made commentaries on the subject as well.  The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, can be seen as another Alexander Lukashenko. The difference is the latter does not have an appetite to “conquer” other nations. The parallels are that both Erdogan and Lukashenko tried to bargain with the West.

In the case of Erdogan, he tried claiming that he is ready to abandon the deal with Moscow if the US removes the strict export policy in the field of arms supplies, changes their policy on the Kurdish dispute, and in general, goes to certain directions of their policy in the Middle East.

Therefore, Turkey wanted to be an equal member of NATO and be able to leverage its own interests. Nevertheless, Germany, and especially France, would never allow such to happen. Additionally, Erdogan continued his assault on the Kurds.

Furthermore, the newly-elected US President, Joe Biden, would highly likely impose strict boundaries with Turkey. Erdogan will no longer be able to freely do what he pleases, like he did in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. Turkey will end up in a very tough spot this year.

Russia–Turkey relations is the bilateral relationship between Russia and Turkey and their antecedent states. Relations between the two are rather cyclical.

The Kremlin is not interested in a Turkish alliance. Russian geopolitical interests do not align with Turkey. Russia did not like what happened to Hagia Sophia and Erdogan disrespecting the Orthodox Church.

His meddling in Nagorno-Karabakh, backing Azerbaijan, did not please Moscow either. Russia also supports Iran, which is the complete opposite to Turkey.

Moreover, the Turkish economy will continue its downward spiral. It is even plausible that Turkey could be removed from NATO. Thereafter, like Lukashenko, Erdogan would have no choice and run to Russia.

At present, Erdogan is staying silent and waiting to see what happens after new US President is inaugurated on January 20.

Turkey is in for a tough year ahead. Turkey, entering into an alliance with Russia, will play the role of a Western “Trojan horse” in relation to Russia, which turned out to be untenable.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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