- Reuters reported that due to expectations of reduced fiscal stimulus, long-term U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply
- US dollar suffered a brutal sell-off occasion.
- Gold prices rose sharply.
On Friday the dollar against a basket of currencies fell sharply, investment experts had predicted the dollar will fall further. This week, the U.S. dollar index fell as much as 1.9%, the largest weekly decline since March. Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, said: “We still believe that the US economy is decelerating, which is reflected in the apparent weakening of the dollar.”
Reuters reported that due to expectations of reduced fiscal stimulus, long-term U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply, coupled with the rebound in stocks and other riskier assets, putting the dollar under continuous selling pressure, and this pressure may continue.
US dollar suffered a brutal sell-off occasion, gold prices rose sharply, the highest since the end of July most large single weekly gain. Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said, “The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has pushed the price of gold to a six-week high.
With the uncertainty of the presidential election and the increasing number of new crown cases, there is also some hedging demand.”
Greg Harmon, founder of Dragonfly Capital, said, “The gold price has tested its highs in 2011 and 2012 on the upside and awaits more information. The long-term upward trend of gold is very stable and there is a lot of room above it.” Harmon pointed out that after the price of gold broke through and stabilized above $1,925 per ounce , it has long looked to the level of 2,900.
US Labor Market Improves Faster
New US October non-farm employment reached 638,000, higher than market expectations of 580,000; the unemployment rate dropped from 7.9% to 6.9% last month, slow down significantly faster than the market expected.
Overall, the US labor force market continued the trend of the repair since May, and the recovery momentum is still strong, by the public health impact of the event is not temporary.
New jobs in October were higher than market expectations. The number of new jobs in the private sector reached 906,000 in October, a slight acceleration from the previous month’s 892,000; however, employment in the government sector decreased by 268,000, causing a certain drag.
Overall, after 3 to 4 months during the blockade, the United States a total of 2216 people lost their job ; 5 to 10 months after the re-opened, employment picked up a total of 1207 people.
The service industry continued to be the main force for new jobs in October, with a total increase of 783,000. Among them, leisure accommodation (271,000), business services (208,000), and retail (104,000) increased significantly.
However, the employment level of these industries is still significantly lower than that in February; especially the leisure accommodation industry, which is still 3.49 million lower than that in February.
In the product production sector, the manufacturing industry added 38,000 jobs and the construction industry added 84,000 jobs . However, manufacturing employment is still 621,000 lower than in February.
The hourly wage growth rate has been positive for 4 consecutive months, and it was 4.5% year- on- year in October . The hourly wage in October was 0.14% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive growth.
Earlier, because low-end employees returned to jobs more quickly and the employment structure of the labor market switched, the wage growth rate fell month-on-month.
But judging from the recent situation, the impact of this switch has basically disappeared. Hourly wages in October were 4.5% year-on-year, which was only a slight decline from 4.6% last month, which is a normal fluctuation.
The above data comes from the first part of the non-agricultural employment report , which is the enterprise survey. The following unemployment rate data comes from the household survey.
The unemployment rate fell back to 6.9% in October, better than market expectations of 7.7%; permanent unemployment fell. Previously, the unemployment rate in April was 14.7%, the highest since World War II, and then fell back to 13.3% in May. This downward trend continued from June to October.
The unemployment rate in October was 6.9%. Looking at the composition of the unemployment rate announced by the household survey, the unemployment rate fell by 1.52 million in October. Although it was still mainly driven by the decrease in temporary unemployment (decreased by 1.43 million in October), the peak of permanent unemployment also made a certain decline.