- The UK could be drawn into the world trade wars.
- Coronavirus created additional challenges in the UK's economy.
- The best scenario is for the UK to make a deal with EU pertaining to trade.
The Coronavirus continues to be on the forefront of the news. There are over 13.4 million infected, and over 581,000 deaths around the world. Due to the pandemic, the post-Brexit issues and future have been on hold. However, the UK’s exit from the European (EU) is a done deal.
The UK was one of the most dynamic players in the global game, both economically and politically. The only problem for the UK is that London intended to play that game at someone else’s expense, either by creating a system of contacts between the EU and the US, or by using the resources of developing countries that British corporations once launched their tentacles into.
Nevertheless, the status quo, with all the desire, the UK could not maintain. The overlapping economic problems of the current crisis and the consequences of Brexit are likely to drive the British economy into a long recovery process.
The impending internal political crisis will make the country susceptible to negative trends (especially since it is not easy to deal with migrants from former colonies). The Coronavirus pandemic also causes significant challenges for the economic recovery.
Additionally, her opponents do not sit still, but try to take advantage of the moment. To a certain extent, the UK is lucky that at points of tension, such as Gibraltar or the Falkland Islands, their opponents are economically unhealthy countries: Spain (dealing with its debts) and Argentina (declaring default after default).
In such situations, it is possible to remain at your own, but not to maintain the reputation of a world power. Ensuring the geopolitical influence of the UK, which could be built on the context of creating a territory free from economic wars (a security island in the confrontation between the US, China and the EU) is an impossible dream. London will not be allowed to stay out of the world’s trade war processes.
Moreover, the hope for the UK is to make a deal with the EU (bearing in mind that Brexit hits both participants in this process at once), and keep from disintegrating. That is, by granting a special economic status to Northern Ireland and delaying the referendum on Scottish independence.
Provided that the situation is successful (since economic and political opportunities are now falling for absolutely all participants in the world game, some are stronger, some are weaker), and a long process of recovery after the crisis for all world powers, the UK can go through a period of illness, associated with leaving the EU, and approaching a new period of global redistribution,
If not completely competitive, as the idea of a superpower from the UK will not work even under the most fantastic scenarios, then at least Britain can be regionally strong.
There is also a negative, which could lead the UK into the trade wars around the globe. One of the main discrepancies for the UK with the US is the electronics segment. That is, with the EU on the consequences of Brexit, and the PRC on Hong Kong and Taiwan cases (they themselves began to drive sanctions).
The UK had tensions with Russia from the Skripals case and Novichok poisoning. Black Lives Matter are also flourishing in London, because there is everything you need. The UK was one of the most brutal colonial policies.