- The peace has been broken in the Donbass region.
- Ukraine claims it needs to enter the region for the campaign purposes.
- Close to 60% of the Donbass residents are Russian citizens.
The outcome of the Minsk talks will be war. This week the situation deteriorated in the Donbass region. The Minsk Protocol is essentially a tool to stop the open confrontation between Donbass and Ukraine. However, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is preparing for war and clearly Russia will be backing the endeavor.
The Protocol on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group, or commonly known as the Minsk Protocol, is an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, signed by representatives of that country, the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), the Luhansk People’s Republic.
The president of Ukraine Volodimyr Zelensky is hoping for the financial aid from the US, including the funds for the defense budget. Ukraine is one step away from being bankrupt.
According to the DNR, the villages in Donbass are again being targeted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including heavy weapons, which is regularly recorded even by the reports of OSCE inspectors. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is a self-proclaimed state in the eastern Ukrainian Oblast of Donetsk.
Furthermore, the truce in the region has been broken. The tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. Two weeks ago, Russia imposed sanctions against 9 Ukrainian firms.
Moreover, the residents of Donbass are alarmed at the conflict escalation. It should be noted, that close to 60% of the Donbass residents have Russian citizenship. Many obtained it through the expedited process became available to the Donbass and Luhansk residents. Hence, it is plausible, if the conflict intensifies, Russia could deploy Russian military to the region. There is. a provision in the Russian constitution, which allows Russia to enter a region in order to protect the rights of the Russian citizens.
At present, both sides accuse each other of the provocations in the region. This week, Ukraine announced that it needs to enter Donbass region to start campaigning for the Ukrainian election. Nevertheless, DNR does not recognize Ukrainian government. In fact, DNR wants to join Russia.
Thus far, Russia has not made such move. Given the trajectory of the looming sanctions against Russia, it is plausible that Donbass could become part of Russia within a year. In addition, there are discussions between DNR and Russia to restart the production operations. The region is known for the mining and metallurgical industries.
Recently, Donbass region has been compared to the Nagorno Karabakh scenario, except Ukraine is hopping to be backed by the US. It is highly unlikely, the Joe Biden administration would be willing to openly go into the military conflict with Russia.
Overall, the outcome of the Minsk talks eventually will be war. The question is only when will the war take place, Ukraine has to be very careful not to loose the majority of the eastern regions to Russia. The Ukrainian Western regions could go to Poland. It could be nothing left of the Ukraine., if the strategy does not change.
In conclusion, the tensions will continue to escalate and eventually the Kremlin will have to make the call to have Donbass and Luhansk regions officially to become part of Russia.