- It is very plausible that the situation will escalate, including the possibility of Western social media platforms being banned in Russia.
- The domino effect could cause some of the EU members to follow Brexit.
- The European farmers could have adverse impact.
Last week, very strong statements were made by the Kremlin regarding the possibility of ending all ties with the European Union. The tensions between Russia and the European Union are ongoing. Nevertheless, the recent events with Alexey Navalny, and the response by the West, is pushing Russia too far.
It is very plausible that the situation will escalate, including the possibility of Western social media platforms being banned in Russia.
Since the EU was only formed in 1992, after the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, the EU could not be successful without the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It should be noted that prior to the European Union, there was an economic union, which was formed in the 1950s.
Moreover, Boris Yeltsin allowed the Russian resources to be stolen, and was a “useful fool” for the West. The low-functioning alcoholic did throw a curve ball, when he empowered Vladimir Putin. Consequently, it led to Putin becoming the ruler of Russia.
Nevertheless, the European Union continued to expand, but encountered many issues, including open border policies. It added new members without anything to offer, besides spiting Russia.
The British populous got tired of paying for everyone else, leading to Brexit. The Brexit deal was finalized, finally, over a month ago. Since the US presidential election of 2016, the populist movement continued to grow, and it caused cracks within the European Union. The bold demands by Poland and Hungary continue to rock the boat.
The biggest surprise came last week, when the EU leaders realized, Russia can break off all relations with the EU. There will be no turning back. The Navalny card and Bellingcat did too much, too soon. The glory of the exposes is replaced with every action having a reaction.
As President Putin stated, “every nation has its own path.” However, it would be a complete disaster if the new version of the digital “Iron Curtain” will take effect. The excited calls for new sanctions against Russia did not calculate the fact that Russia won’t back down, won’t even consider counter sanctions. Instead, there will be an end of the relationship.
The giddy Navalny, making the list of people that should be sanctioned, could in fact cause the EU economy to reach a new low. The Coronavirus pandemic caused a huge economic burden on the EU member economies already.
Germany already expressed concerns over what would happen to the Nord Stream-2 project if Russia cuts off ties. As for the Bundestag, there is a lot riding on the project.
The EU farmers can end up with large losses and the German populous is not willing to sacrifice part of their economy for the Navalny show pony. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership is coming to an end and the new leader might not follow in her footsteps.
Italy has been plagued by the populist movement, and perhaps the final straw could be in the form of Russia being done with the EU. If other nations leave the EU, Russia could have economic relationships with these nations outside of the EU.
Perhaps France will be excited momentarily, if the nations like Germany and Italy leave. That automatically would put France at the lead, but what will there be left to lead?
There is also the factor of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. Many EU nations are experiencing shortages of the COVID-19 vaccines, and the Russian vaccine could actually be the answer to efficiently accelerate the halt of the Coronavirus pandemic.
In addition, the West is so busy with Navalny that many are overlooking the change in the Russian foreign policy course. Russia is aggressively expanding into Africa and interested in the new routes and to breakaway from the existing patterns. The established trajectory and the dealings with the EU, are starting to burden Russia, as too much time being spent dealing with the Navalny antics.
Overall, if the push continues, the new dimension might actually give Russia an advantage. Russia is not the nation to corner without a full-blown response.
The recent events and meetings behind held by the Kremlin indicate that 2021 could be the end of the era that the West enjoyed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The 30th year anniversary this year of the Soviet Union’s collapse will be symbolic to Putin to end all ties with the EU and restore the Soviet-style order.