- The scenario is a repeat of the Russo Georgia war in the 2008.
- Consultations taking place between Putin, Merkel and Macron.
- Ukrainian forces will not win against Russia.
The tensions continue to escalate in the Donbas region. The US controls the policy of the Ukrainian authorities, hence no other country in the world has direct influence on the Ukrainian government, but the US administration. Furthermore, the United States and the United Kingdom declared their full support of the Ukraine.
Many articles appeared in the Western media, proclaiming undivided support of the Ukraine in the event of an operation in the Donbas. Some articles, go as far as suggesting a possible clash between Russia and NATO. A US plane with the military cargo has flown to Lviv. The scenario seems to be a repeat of 2008 when the US authorities involved themselves into the Georgia scenario with the South Ossetia. The Russo-Georgian War was between Georgia, Russia and the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The war took place in August 2008 following a period of worsening relations between Russia and Georgia, both formerly constituent republics of the Soviet Union.
However, there are multiple components pertaining to the Ukraine scenario. One of the scenarios includes the US electing Joe Biden as the 46th president. The Biden administration desires to increase the pressure on Russia. Russia and the US are geopolitical opponents and both crave to control the world.
However, it is a smart power play by the Biden administration. In addition, the pressure on Russia allows Biden to test Russian strength. Nevertheless, the scenario will push Russia to resurrect the Iron Curtain.
Moreover, the new tensions with Ukraine allow the US to undermine Russian cooperation with the individual EU member nations, especially with the framework of the “vaccine democracy”.
The economic aspect pertaining to the Nord Stream 2 project and putting pressure on Germany is also on the table. It should be noted, Germany can’t afford to halt the Nord Stream 2 project.
Discussions continue between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron. These are necessary in order to convince Merkel and Macron that Russia has no desire to start a military offense in Donbas, but will have no choice to respond if such actions take place in the region. It is expected that the Minsk agreements will be breached.
On a personal level, the region is important to me, as prior to the 1917 Revolution, the gubernias were owned by my family. At the time, the territories did not belong to Ukraine. In fact, they were under Czarist Russia and my lineage as such.
Thus far, the Russian political circles are united in condemning the hostilities taking place in the Donbas. The key factor is that a majority of the Donbas residents now have Russian citizenship and according to the Russian constitution have a right to be protected by Russia in case of hostilities and any threat to the Russian nationals.
Russia has been transferring military equipment to Crimea and the western border of Russia. Putin is taking logical steps in the hope of preventing a full-scale war in the Donbas. But this is almost impossible. Everyone understands that in the event of an attack on the Donbass, Russia will respond– perhaps covertly in the form of a counterattack by the people’s militia corps of the DPR and LPR– but Russia will respond.
Overall, Ukraine could loose the region permanently. Either way, Volodymir Zelensky’s political career is done. The sad part would be civilian casualties, if in fact the conflict turns into a full scale war. In the case of war, Ukrainian forces will be defeated.