- Lukashenko has been able to suppress Maidan.
- He is in a very precarious situation.
- It is possible for the coup to take place in Belarus.
Alexander Lukashenko managed to suppress Belarus’ Maidan. The protests continue, but without the same vigor. However, it is only a temporary measure. Eventually, the forces will get stronger, and it is highly likely this will be his last term. If he manages to get through it, it will be with the help of Russia.
It should be noted that he is calling Russia and Putin his friend. This is the same leader who just last month made a theatrical performance and accusations against the Kremlin, and the magnificent story of the Wagner group mercenaries capture near Minsk. Lukashenko claimed that Russia wanted to stage a coup.
Furthermore, Lukashenko can just go into retirement. He has been in power since 1994, and could save his face by doing so now. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely that Lukashenko will give up. Over the weekend, he was observed traveling in a bullet proof vest with a machine gun.
His youngest son, who is 15, had the same look. The only way Lukashenko can survive is by the integration with Russia. The West is wonderful, but without Russia, Belarus would not survive. Otherwise, it would become another Ukraine, just a little better. Let’s be realistic: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is not a leader. If anyone is to blame for her fiasco, it is Alexei Navalny.
Currently, he is in a medically-induced coma in the Charite clinic in Germany. He was allegedly poisoned. The version of the story involving tea is disputed. The cameras from the Tomsk airport were released, and no one passed by or even was in proximity of his drink. The tea was poured from the common area, from a common use container. However, it is possible that he ingested some type of substance outside of the airport. The question is, what was it?
It is guaranteed not Novichok, so Navalny’s live YouTube channel couldn’t live off such hype for long. It didn’t even last 24 hours. On the contrary, Navalny also introduced tactical voting, which was also implemented in Belarus. Tactical voting, in this case, means you vote for anyone but Lukashenko. He was trying to do the same scheme in Russia next month, for the upcoming State Duma election (anyone but United Russia).
The Kremlin got clever, and now in Siberia, a former intelligence officer (Colonel) from the FSB is running under the Communist Party platform. If such was offered to be done in the West, it is careless and absolutely foolish on every angle.
Moreover, Lukashenko is hopping to return to the pre-Maidan policy of balancing between Russia and the West. This option will lead to a rapid collapse of the Belarusian economy. The Kremlin has long made it clear that it is no longer satisfied with cooperation in the format of “money in exchange for a handshake and waive.”
Failure to integrate will quickly lead Belarus to work “on a common basis,” and in such conditions, most Belarusian enterprises are simply uncompetitive on the Russian market. The world markets are unreachable for Belarus as it is. The difficult economic situation will only add to the growth rate of the Maidan forces, and further undermine the position of the authorities.
The coup, as a result of another Maidan in this case, will only put an end to the history of “European integration” of Belarus. But in this case, Lukashenko can count on a quiet old age as little as Belarus can count on prosperity.
Additionally Lukashenko’s actions, taken as a result of the almost full-suppression of the Belarusian Maidan, does not cause optimism. Defectors from the state media are officially forgiven, and can return to their jobs.
The organizers and leaders of the Maidan are at large. Most of them are safe. Most of the several thousand detained members of the Maidan infantry will also soon be released as part of the”reconciliation policy.” Lukashenko will try to compensate for his increased dependence on Russia by strengthening his Pro-Western rhetoric. No one can truly trust Lukashenko at the end.
The Kremlin is smart enough to know that once the Maidan is dissolved, Lukashenko will start his antics again. He doesn’t have the loyalty to the West or Russia. Lukashenko craves power, he will not stop. He backtracked on the integration with Russia because he didn’t want to be second in command, or worse, even third.
Given the latest speeches, and Lukashenko’s antics, one would believe he is delusional. He genuinely believes what he is saying. Is is narcissism, or much worse? The only thing is for certain: Tsikhanouskaya will never be President of Belarus. She will be sacrificial in due time.