- The same scenario that happened in Syria can happen in Venezuela.
- The militants can occupy Venezuela.
- There could be the use of Colombian proxies in Venezuela.
This week, the Venezuelan leader of the opposition, Juan Guaido, gave an interview regarding the continuation of the US’ bipartisan support of the Venezuelan opposition by the newly-elected US President, Joe Biden, and his administration. However, Venezuela can suffer the same fate as Syria, except the trajectory will differ.
In the case of Syria, Bashar al-Assad stayed in power. He only managed to hang on to power with Russian aid. It should be noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Assad gone in order to gain control in the region, even if it means causing bloodshed against Kurds.
His support for the militants caused a large-scale human tragedy and an influx of refugees to the European Union. The militants can no longer take over the entire country, but they are supported in order to sow the discord and turmoil within Syria. Thus, the war can’t end, and the same scenario can happen in Venezuela.
Moreover, militants can also occupy Venezuela. It can even be contract fighters, which are recruited by Turkey. President Erdogan can just add to the scenario, the same as he has been doing in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. As of late, Turkey has been fueling multiple conflicts around the globe.
The Venezuelan official opposition can be sidelined, and the confusion can set in pertaining to the militants claiming to be the opposition. Therefore, it could be the beginning of an endless war. The US troops could enter the region to support Guaido, while Russian forces will enter to support the current Venezuelan government. The playbook is the same as Syria, just different terrain and ideology.
Analysis of Venezuela suggests they have air defense system options, but there are a lot of questions pertaining to the military. However, Syria also had good air defense, yet a large number of the air defenses were lost. The strategy by the militants in Syria were to attack the air bases first.
In Venezuela, the rebels can gain access to oil and start dumping them at lower prices. In this case, Russia has a large stake in Venezuelan oil and a full-fledged war can break out. The war can spread into nearby countries on the continent.
There is also a possibility of using Colombian proxies in Venezuela as well. President Erdogan can’t be trusted. What is stopping him from meddling into Venezuela? President Erdogan has not been reprimanded for his previous actions, including aiding Azerbaijan to launch an offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The situation in Libya is fragile, even with the cease fire deal due to Turkish meddling. Turkey also does not rule out another operation in Syria. Thus far, no sanctions have been issued against Turkey, even though Germany, France, and Greece are demanding action.
Overall, a lot will depend on Biden’s foreign policy, which will be shaped next year. It is plausible that the newly-elected US President will force Turkey to back down. Nevertheless, the situation in Venezuela is far from over.