What is the Future of the Eurasian Economic Union?

  • Armenia is part of the EAEU.
  • Iran is also expected to join.
  • Russia needs to expand own manufacturing.

The creation of the Eurasian Economic Union has been predetermined by three historical aspects, which, within the framework of close cooperation, determine the direction of the economies of the member states. These three formats, which are interfaced to one degree or another, gave the prototype of the EAEU.

These Aspects Are: 

  1. The Soviet past of all states, under a single economic system of the USSR.
  2. The existence of a common prototype in the face of the EU, as a form of imitation.
  3. The availability of historical allusions to Germany’s development, in the context of the transition from customs union to a more systemic form of integration.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an economic union of states located in central and northern Asia and Eastern Europe. The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed on 29 May 2014 by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and came into force on 1 January 2015.

The various states’ production is connection to the Soviet economy, and therefore continued to a degree afterward. That is why Ukraine is in a dire situation when it comes to manufacturing. However, the latest is that Poland has purchased a bulk of the factories based in Ukraine.

The European Union, for all its ambiguity and inferiority, at the same time organizationally represents, if not an ideal, then in some sense a model of economic integration. Meanwhile, the ideological roots of the EAEU are quite clear, as well as the intentions.

The EAEU countries have three incentives to integrate within the EAEU. These include obtaining resources from Russia at reduced prices (gas, oil), providing access to individual liquid goods on the capacious Russian market, and ensuring free migration (cross-border movement of labor resources).

In fact, the countries of this bloc are unlikely to have any other needs in the EAEU. It should be noted that quite a few already have trade agreements in place. it is expected that Iran is going to join.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but mostly governed by the Republic of Artsakh (formerly named Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority established on the basis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.

However, it is important to point out that Armenia is part of the Union. Hence, the members have a vested interest to aid Armenia in the attack of the nation due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that was escalated by Turkey.

The most important issue is Russia’s interest in the EAEU institutions. What it is, and whether it really is. By and large, the format of the future development of this institution depends solely on Russia’s interest in the EAEU.

As for Russia’s interest in the EAEU, it should be noted that now this is the format of retaining the common economic space in the post-Soviet States. At the same time, it is a means to prevent changes in parameters that would limit or worsen the penetration of Russian economic interests in post-Soviet countries in the future.

Overall, the development of the EAEU is associated with the further economic return of Russia as a producer of a wide range of export-acceptable goods. The development of the manufacturing economy slowly expanding.

It is plausible to expect the further development will occur in 2021. This year has been challenging, due to the Coronavirus pandemic, and a lot of changes within Russia. One of the biggest changes are the passed amendments to the Russian constitution.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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