- The Moldovan populous is expected to vote on November 1st in the presidential election.
- The Moldovan president Igor Dodon is running for the second term.
- Igor Dodon is favored by Russia.
On the November 1st, the people of Moldova will vote in their country’s presidential election. There is a big chance of demonstrations similar to those in Belarus after their election. Given the Moldovan history of color revolutions, it is very plausible of such occurring. Moldova does not hold a strategic interest as does Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus.
Nevertheless, it is still of interest to the West. Technically Moldova was artificially created due to the Romanian territories’ annexation after World War II. Hence, Romania does not have much of a choice, but to balance between pro-Russian strategy and pro-Romanian Western interests.
It should be noted that Georgia has parliamentary elections coming up on October 31.
History has the ability to determine the future. In the Moldovan dimension, it is an eternal looking the other way, with the conflicts and mutual accusations, embezzlement, and arrests. However, given the history of neighboring Romania and Ukraine, this does not seem strange, but rather natural.
Moreover, the draw is about the current President of Moldova, Igor Dodon, or the US-favored Maia Sandu. President Dodon is favored by Russia and is running for the second term.
Maia Sandu is a Moldovan politician, the current leader of the Party of Action and Solidarity, and former Prime Minister of Moldova. On 12 November 2019, Maia Sandu’s government fell after a vote on the censure motion. Sixty-three of the 101 MPs voted the motion submitted by the PSRM.
Polls are now in favor of Dodon, with the 37-39% of the vote. In second place is Maia Sandu, with about 28-32 % of the vote. There is a belief that if Sandu does not win, there will be protests on the streets.
What does this election mean for Russia?
If Igor Dodon is elected for a second term, it would be an upset to the European Union. This issue will put the Moldovan authorities in a very difficult position. On the one hand, a hostile European Union, on the other a hostile Ukraine. It would be an almost hopeless situation.
If Maia Sandu becomes president of Moldova, it will be unfavorable for Russia. It would escalate the situation in the Prednistrovie conflict. It could possibly mean Russia would have to back the region, and possibly even use the military in regards to the Prednistrovie conflict.
This is supported by the fact that the Moldovan Parliament, which was elected in 2019, is still largely against Maia Sandu. This means that a lot of efforts will have to be made to seriously change the map of the political game.
Both sides will be there en masse. As the second scenario requires the neutralization of the Parliament, it could also create multitude of conflicts.
The European Union supports Maia Sandu for one reason: to show domination on the geopolitical arena. Additionally, any chance the EU gets to weaken Vladimir Putin’s agenda is a welcome scenario.
The trajectory of Moldova is predisposed, but the players might be moved around. At the end, Moldova does not pose a huge interest for the West or Russia.