What Will August Bring Around the Globe?

  • This month there will be the rise of conflicts.
  • The post-Soviet space will undoubtedly become another acute political point.
  • The Middle East will continue to be an issue for the certain nations.

The Coronavirus continues to be on the forefront of the news around the world. Currently, there are over 19.5 million infected and over 724,000 deaths around the globe. The numbers continue to climb, with no cure in sight. Many labs are working tirelessly to create a vaccine and better utilize existing drugs to treat patients.

Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on 9 August 2020. Long-term president Alexander Lukashenko has announced he will run for a sixth term in office, having won every presidential election since independence in 1991, and is heavily-favored to win again.

This month is indicative of the looming escalation of political conflicts. Belarus continues to be a hot topic, with presidential elections scheduled for August 9. Protests have been non-stop in Belarus. Longtime President Alexander Lukashenko jailed at least two of his opponents in this election.

Last week, members of the alleged Wagner Group of mercenaries were arrested in Minsk. The explanation given was that Minsk was used as a transfer point to travel to Africa by the mercenary groups.

The new theory that was released on August 7, speculates that the hiring was fake, and that the whole scenario was orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence to cause further division between Russia and Belarus. The post-Soviet space will undoubtedly become another acute political point, both in Belarus and Ukraine.

The United States will be holding the Democratic and Republican National Conventions to officially nominate candidates for President and Vice President. Given the advanced age of the main candidates, the latter is very important, particularly for Democratic challenger Joe Biden, whose running mate remains unknown.

The publication this week of Ghislaine Maxwell’s questioning of Jeffrey Epstein may also have some influence on the election. Each side has pointed out Epstein’s friendships with both former President Bill Clinton and current President Donald Trump.

All subsequent actions will be carried out only and exclusively in the context of the elections, and under no circumstances in isolation from them. This means that we will hear about new charges in the very near future. Conspiracies, revelations, and other things form the basis of modern elections. This will be interesting.

Another point of tension will be the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean basin. Turkey continues to actively work to weaken the situation in several regions at the same time. To the activity in Syria, where, by the way, Russian military vessels and VKS planes have reached, which is indicative, and Libya, where there is a very tense situation.

This is especially true against the background of another statement by Marshal Haftar that the Turkish conquerors will be thrown out, and the military authorities of Egypt about the illegality of Turkey’s activities.

There is also active drilling by Turkish exploration vessels off the shelf of the island of Cyprus, Turkish-Azerbaijani exercises held in Nakhichevan (against the background of parallel Russian-Armenian exercises), as well as Turkey’s emerging activity in the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa (Horn of Africa).

At the same time, if earlier this could be attributed to the peculiarities of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s behavior, now we can only talk about what is the expansion of geography (for which the Turks have no strength, neither funds nor finances) is a paraphrase of the behavior of the hedgehog, which in case of danger tries to expand its needles as widely as possible.

It is obvious that this boundless activity is not a manifestation of Turkey’s strength, but of its weakness. Failure to achieve a positive result, at least in one area, and simultaneously entering many others leads only to the erosion of resources.

This will eventually require either an extremely difficult political maneuver, involving many strong players, or a collapse that may occur as early as August, and cost Erdogan his seat.

Imagine simultaneous actions on all sections of other players against the positions of Turkey. This will mean the actual defeat of Turkey in various areas and shifting the problem to Turkey itself, where the opposition has every chance to oust Erdogan this autumn.

Sovereignty over two relatively large and several smaller separated pieces of territory has been contested between China and India. Aksai Chin is located either in the Indian union territory of Ladakh or the Chinese autonomous region of Xinjiang. The other disputed territory lies south of the McMahon Line.

The continuation of tensions in the India-China border. India even asked Russia to expedite the defense systems deliveries. Both sides are reportedly pulling in troops. In a good way, for the United States, this particular conflict, which could be entered into a little later, would be the most acceptable solution to all possible problems for the United States.

India, as one of the largest and growing economies with nuclear weapons and large human resources, may well be considered a worthy opponent for China. If the conflict in the South China sea begins in parallel, then the US strategy to surround China with hotbeds of military action can be considered resolved

Russia will experience a very difficult time this month. First of all, we are talking about the fact that certain groups of influence will try to get the best possible positions during the autumn redistribution of functions between state authorities when a new body – the State Council-appears.

In a good way, in Russia, a conglomerate of political interest groups is in power, while their functions and their positions are painted, and the interference of certain groups in the space of other groups can become the basis for a very serious problem.

As a result of the constitutional reform, a new state authority, the State Council, will appear (completely different from the current version of this body). The emergence of such a body will require personnel replacement, and, consequently, the strengthening of certain groups of influence in these positions.

As a result, tectonic shifts must also take place in other authorities – The state Duma, the Federation Council, the Government, and the Presidential Administration.

August is expected to be a tough month.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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