What’s Next for Latin America in 2021?

  • The socialists in Bolivia gained power once again.
  • The pendulum of the formation of Pro-American regimes in Latin America has come to an end due to Trump.
  • In Latin America, coups, revolutions, mass demonstrations are the common occurrence to replace the government.

Since inauguration, US President Donald Trump has been focusing on domestic issues and the trade war with China. As a result,  the pendulum of establishing pro-American regimes in the countries of the Latin American region has swung in the opposite direction of the US dominance.

Evo Morales is a Bolivian politician and former cocalero activist who served as the 80th President of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019. On November 10, 2019, he resigned amidst significant unrest in the wake of a report by the Organization of American States alleging his government had rigged the year’s elections.

The events that recently have taken place in Peru and Bolivia are the prime examples of Trump’s ignorance of international affairs. These events signal the possible domino effect to follow, and speed outside the region.

The socialists in Bolivia gained power once again. However, it is not the charismatic politician, Evo Morales, but his less well-known party colleague, Luis Alberto Arce.

He served as Minister of Economy and Public Finance from 2006 to 2017, and in 2019 under President Evo Morales. At a minimum, the duo of the socialists will have to address the issue of minimizing foreign participation (primarily American).

Meanwhile, there were mass protests in neighboring Peru, amid which Martín Vizcarra, who became president in 2018, was impeached last week. However, Peru has never “suffered” from calm in political life.

Since the time of President Fujimori, the country has been going through one political crisis after another.

Both of the above events signify that the pendulum of the formation of pro-American regimes in Latin America has come to an end due to Trump. The question ponders, was it intentional or is it Trump’s lack of foreign affairs knowledge that caused the breakdown of the hard work the previous US politicians and intelligence agencies worked diligently to achieve.

Ousted Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra

It is highly likely that newly-elected US President Joe Biden will reverse the course of “Trumpism.” However, there is a possibility that Latin America will have different changes, and it could take years to influence the situation and swing the pendulum back.

Moreover, as a domino effect, the region can revert to the populist socialism models of governance. Brazil could follow suit within a year. It should be noted that in Brazil, street protests and accusations of corruption are traditional ways to settle political scores and solve problems of gaining power. However, it is Brazil that will be the key point in breaking the Trumpist regimes.

Overall, 2021 will be an interesting year not only for Latin America, but the whole world. In Latin America, coups, revolutions, and mass demonstrations are a common occurrence to replace the government. In this instance, there is also an economic crisis that will hurt the incomes of low-income segments of the population, which are very large in Latin America.

This means that the flight of the political pendulum will be very large-scale and destructive. It will shake the foundations of statehood for many. The Coronavirus pandemic contributed to the socioeconomic challenges.

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Christina Kitova

I spent most of my professional life in finance, insurance risk management litigation.

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